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241.
路人皆知 |
| 2016-07-02 19:35 |
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242.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-03 10:36 |
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路人兄
總結要得閑D先做，感想可以先講講。
年初本投票活動初舉行，好多老牌好友都含糊其辭，依傢CCL回升緊，請各大好友踴躍發表，到底本年年底最后一週，CCL會高于還是低于118？
當然，請淡友們也大力支持，多多發表睇法。
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244.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-03 19:14 |
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In 1997, one lunch is 15HKD. Now, it is 30. Using the same buy ability, the reasonable housing price index should be 200.
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In 1997, one lunch is 15HKD. Now, it is 30. Using the same buy ability, the reasonable housing price index should be 200.
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248.
香港土著 |
| 2016-07-04 09:54 |
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個人認為今次係陰乾格局, 由2015年9月起計, 下行周期會超過五年, 會係慢熊 (類似日本迷失X年). 所以, 我估今年底CCL會高過118.
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249.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-04 14:15 |
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多謝香港土著兄對活動嘅支持。
我都覺得似陰乾局，高於118實不為奇，兄台態度中肯，論壇如此方有意思。
不過我知道大陸一d幾令人詫異嘅情況，講出嚟又怕坐洗頭艇，我個心比呢度大部分人更唔希望出現硬著陸。
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250.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-04 14:23 |
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To 246樓 aa兄
先多謝你參與投票，你估CCL幾多都可以，200唔係奇，只要撤BSD,180我保底。
有個必須留意嘅問題，比較就餐價格應該以同一餐廳、同一套餐作准，在下1988年做超市暑期工，未過試用期都有3150，依家幾乎30年後，同一超市同一工種我估計未過萬。
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It is hard to get an exact figure for this. But a common sense is that there are more and more money now, globally. In our current society, there are more and more people who really produce nothing now. How do there people survive? They are using the notes printed out via our so-called regal systems. For small potato, like us, the only way to protect us is to buy some useful things which can not be printed out. Some smart guys are doing this.
Of course, everything has a risk. If this risk is out of our control, we have to pay somethings to our system, that means, allow them to take benefits from our life.
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252.
To 250/F |
| 2016-07-04 17:13 |
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真心問, 你睇大陸睇得咁淡, 點解撤 BSD 你又覺得可以上 180?
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253.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-04 17:28 |
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先回252樓
真唔真心？一樣答。 大陸走資潮嘅規模，相對香港現有加未來一二手盤嘅數目，撤BSD後推上180有咩奇怪？有句話叫“慌不擇路”，一群來時亦會一窩蜂走，尤其是今次洗頭艇事件，兩地會逐步加强各領域通報機制，唔能够長留大陸嘅錢，將來香港亦未必係安全地。
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254.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-04 17:46 |
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To 251樓 aa兄
買嘢保值個個都識，但係要睇價位，睇形勢，睇環境，你講得冇錯，好多人冇做事但係日日有錢駛，呢樣嘢唔好太老定，從新發牌係周期性發生嘅事情，呢個時候賣屋可以比買屋更鎖定利潤，世界休養生息到夠，實體經濟會再上路。
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The problem is that we do not have the prediction ability about how long the cycle is. The historical data is not surely applied for current case. If we know the cycle, then there is not poor people already.
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256.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-04 18:28 |
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老生常談，點解唔知升定跌就一定要買升？點解睇得到經濟前景唔好都一定要以買升為保險？純粹好友邏輯而已。
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繼續維持原判，高于118。我係香港傳統死硬派，同死揸滙豐一樣。
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258.
CD ROM |
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| 2016-07-04 23:05 |
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高於118
刀兄，以年中計距離還有9%，以上半年走勢估，就算有低於118既機會但時間上又要碰巧在年尾出現，太難。。。
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259.
引刀一快 |
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| 2016-07-05 00:47 |
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多謝CD ROM兄對活動支持
時間係短咗D，但係要跌的話，破118唔係問題，關鍵係呢半年社會是否真正意識到大陸嘅問題唔可能靠行政手段，用幾個政策去搞掂，更不可能一時半刻就渡過低迷恢復元氣。
所以，依傢好友最緊要努力唱好，給予舉棋不定嘅人無限信心，并且重視“依傢唔買遲D更難買”嘅可能性，個個廿幾歲仔嘅人生理想就係老來有間屋，而唔係術業有專攻。如是者，118必可保也！
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260.
252 |
| 2016-07-05 11:27 |
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高於118
另想回 256/F 刀兄:
其實長遠睇, 買升贏面係大 d, 因為升係無限, 跌係有限.. 今日 4m 既樓, 幾十年後值幾多, 冇人估到, 可以係 40m 都唔出奇, 但跌呢, 當你跌到 $1 都唔值, 都只係蝕 4m
所以我都覺得如果你唔係咩股神債神乜神物神, 計過風險後, 覺得自己承擔到個風險, 買係保險過唔買.
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