係香港只有 110 萬個私人單位，大約 8 成自住，2 成收租，    
大約一半私樓無按揭，有做按揭嘅平均只係 5 成按揭成數，享受緊 1-1.5厘樓下嘅業主我想有數拾萬，
現在手持物業嘅人，壓力真係好細，絕大部份業主供平過租，而利息短期又升唔倒！ 
如果拒哋在半年前做落嘅係 H 按，咁單計利息支出真係少得可憐，如非必要都唔會賣樓或換樓！
扣埋受 SSD 影响賣唔倒樓嘅業主，都唔知有乜 2手樓可以賣？   
         
但另一方面香港又面對歐美經濟衰退陰雲密布影响，99 %嘅人都睇淡樓市！  
預期向淡，99%會跌，邊個會入市？02 -03 年沙士期間樓市成交低迷就係鐵証！！  
準業主買唔買樓最決定嘅因素係：-   1)供唔供得起，2)中短期仲有無得升，3)樓價係高定低！！
先後次序要分清，不要混淆，否則成世都上唔倒車！    
         
但現在跌又唔跌得多，想升又升唔倒，所以成交少咁半。    
地產代理就真係俾呢個局玩殘。      
         
唯今之計，小型代理應該同中、美两大集團商量，不要再互相殘殺！   
一齊向政府要求取消 SSD，或 SSD 只向有利潤嘅物業抽取，而唔係從價抽取！！！ 
         
「人無千日好，花無百日紅」，今日施生及黃生可能想借東風將小型行消滅，  
但如果有一日樓市淡勢型成，咁大行日子都唔好過。    
         
***本人並非地產代理及只有一層樓自住，而 20多年內並沒有炒過樓！

準業主買唔買樓最決定嘅因素係：-   1)供唔供得起，2)中短期仲有無得升，3)樓價係高定低！！ 
先後次序要分清，不要混淆，否則成世都上唔倒車！     
          
係度解釋吓點解樓價中短期仲有無得升嘅重要性：-     
在樓市處於上升軌，每個月都有得升，就算你比市價買貴幾個 %，銀行點整都會同你拆掂埋嗰十萬八萬！
反之在樓市處於下降軌，每個月都陰啲陰啲跌，你比市價買貴幾個 %，就足以令你周圍都借唔足錢上會！
銀行估價一來保守左，加上由你成交嗰日起到簽按揭合約計點都成個月，任何重大利淡消息都足以令你撻定！！
可能你預左俾首期嗰啲投資工具大跌，或者銀行會收緊信貸自保，或金融管理局俾壓力啲銀行唔好咁勇--------
一來一回要上車客嘔多幾拾萬出黎，真係蛇都死！！！     
          
好多人其實都能夠係呢個低息期供倒樓，呢班人上唔倒車最主要嘅原因係首期不足同信心不足！ 
          
政府唔針對呢兩樣嘢，攪冧樓價一半都幫唔倒幾多人上車！！！

•        全然贊成冷鋒至。一如所料，”2011年12月12日國際信貸評級機構穆迪表示，歐洲各國上周實際並無提出新措施，並指歐洲領導人於歐盟峰會未提出解決歐債危機的新措施，並計劃於明年第一季，將重新評估歐盟所有成員國的主權信用評級。”2012乃歐羅爆煲年，全球遭殃！

Global Outlook 2012

European

1. Enforceable fiscal rules are a significant step forward. The new treaty has teeth.
2. Some countries such as Greece and Italy will suffer recession due to an excessive embrace of short-term budgetary austerity.
3. Embattled banks curtail their lending.
4. Euro zone : GDP -0.3%
5. UK: uncertainty due to detachment of the new treaty

US

1. No double dip recession but weak recovery
2. Long term weak dollar fosters the US investment starting 2009
3. Normal recovery depends on the housing problem to be fixed.
4. Stock market becomes Safe Haven compared with other countries
5. GDP : 1.3%

BCIR + Japan

1. Keep story short, economy remains in a good shape.
2. Brazil :3.5%, Russia : 3.7%, India :7.8%, China : 8.2% and Japan : 2.2%

Conclusion :

Global Outlook 2012 = Stagnation Year

1. US dollar is in a cyclical bull trend but it cannot be sustainable.
2. US Stock market outperforms other countries. Dow’s upward trend remains unchanged and is going to 14,000 in Aug 2012.
3. Gold will test its key supportive level 1400 once it breaks the supportive level (1675 & 1600) of symmetrical triangle.

HK Property Market

1. The peak hit in Jun 2011. Moment of truth prevails.
2. A tipping point of upwards trend?  Not yet confirmed by the Market.
3. Correction is still in consolidation phase till March 2012.

Some advice to the first-hand property owners

1. It’s a good time for tenants market
2. Check your affordability ratio whether it is below 30% before you jump in the market
3. A property is the tool for hedging the inflation

See you all next year.

P.S. Mr. Shum, The One and AT : thank you for your warming signal