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香港的抗疫故事应该是什么?

 

浪子心声

2020年2月10日
少出门一次,安全多一分 ~《防疫口号》

2012出版全球畅销书《人类简史》作者「尤瓦尔.赫拉利」认为,人类在第二世界大战结束前,即1945年前,主要面对三大危机引致大量人类死亡:「饥荒」、「瘟疫」和「战争」,但随著20世纪的科技进步,人类已成功地处理这三大问题。今天,「饥饿」造成的死亡人数少於「痴肥」,「瘟疫」造成的死亡人数少於「年老」,死於「暴力」尤其是与战争相关的人少於「意外」。

在武汉「新冠肺炎」尚未爆发前,大众应容易接受这个观点,但现今新冠状病毒已引致八百多人死亡及超过三万确诊病例,虽然大多专家认为这新病毒死亡率低於「沙士」,但其传染性则相当高,有专家认为可达3.8,即一个感染者可传染3.8个人,近日更有专家认为武汉病毒可经「气溶胶」传播,新病毒另一特徵是众多感染者无病徵或病徵轻微,若发生本地感染,隐形感染者可能众多,及早隔离难以实行,令防疫难度显得相当高。

这样令人对「赫拉利」的观点产生怀疑,但我个人依然有信心「新冠肺炎」不会如二次大战前,人类在面对瘟疫时会发生数以千万人死亡及大量感染,如14世纪欧洲大鼠疫死亡人数达2500万。最终武汉肺炎可能约在数十万人感染及数千人死亡范围之内,其影响可能与严重季节性流感的死亡和感染率差不多。

为何信心这么大,不是对这病毒掉以轻心,依然是基於「赫拉利」的观点,但不是上述人类已战胜瘟疫危机,而是《人类简史》一书中第一个核心观点,它解答了,「智人」(Sapiens)即人类为何能成为地球最终的统治物种?书中的答案可以简化为两个字,就是「合作」,更准确一点的答案是:

      「人类能够非常灵活地与大量不认识的人类合作」

简单解释,人类在「一对一」或「十对十」的情况下,都没有优势能胜过其他物种,如狮子、老虎,但历史证明人类能成千上万地「合作」消灭地球上任何一种生物,或面对巨大自然环境特变时亦能生存下去。

更重要的观点,「赫拉利」认为人类为何能这么「大规模合作」,是因为人类能说「故事」(story),尤其是「虚构的故事」(fiction),在人类历史上出现许多丰富想像力的故事,凝聚了数以千万甚至亿计的人类,由於他们相信同一个故事,所以在数不相识的情景下一起合作,向著同一目标进发,完成了种种历史的创举。宗教是最明显的例子,更长尽的解说请看《人类简史》一书。

回到正题,为何对中国能战胜今次「新冠肺炎」瘟疫有信心,因为中国政府能在国内说得一个好的「抗疫故事」。中央在得知疫情严重时,立即封城,虽然有点延误,现以倾尽全国之力,势必切断病毒传染源。在2019年,中国不幸地不断面对中美的「贸易战」、「科技战」和「金融战」,在12月中美初步签订贸易战第一阶段协议,好像2020年将会一切顺利之势,突然出现「武汉新冠状病毒爆发」,不论这次瘟疫是否「非自然事件」,笔者认同中国中央政府现已以面对「生化战」攻击处理,中国实质已经处於战时状态,「中国的抗疫故事主题」是要与这超级病毒打一场「全民战争」,针对新冠状病毒的高传染性,要最大程度降低人民的流动性,令所有中国人相信这是目前最好的防疫手段,切断传染源,把可能存在的患者都找出来,把患者接触过的人群都找出来,然后隔离起来,要治疗就治疗,该医学观察就医学观察。

这好像是不可能的任务,但正如「赫拉利」的观点,只要大多数的中国人相信这「故事」,便能凝聚14亿中国人尽量降低流动性,创造人类史无前例的14亿人口的「有限度隔离」,鼓励人民「尽量少出门」,「尽量不添乱」,「全力支持防疫工作」。从过去两周,在不同媒体已感受到,内地大多数的中国人都非常接受这故事,大家都非常「合作」,不怨气尽量留在家中生活,很多网上视频分享如何在家生活,街上行人不多,市面稳定,没有争购食品、口罩等物资。在武汉的视频更出现数不相识的市民互相帮助,支持防护工作,免费私家车接送医护人员上班

相反香港并没有说好自己的「香港抗疫故事」,众多香港人还在争相购买厕纸、食米、消毒液等等,老人家更要为买口罩排队数小时,而香港特首还在为谁可戴口罩、如何为医护人员提供口罩在烦恼。香港的抗疫故事不应是戴不戴口罩、不是如何洗手等等细节,而应支持中国的抗疫故事,为中国及香港尽早回复正常,打一场「抗疫战」,鼓励香港人「尽量在家生活」、「减少人与人接触」、「尽量不添乱」、「互相帮助」、「全力支持防疫工作」。

可惜香港特首没有说出这样的「香港抗疫故事」,但香港会说故事的人多的是,香港特区政府应立即雇用有名的「公关公司」、「广告公司」、「编剧」、「导演」、「明星」等等,以中国的抗疫故事为基础,为香港创造一个有说服力的故事,在电视、网络大做宣传,稳定人心,让七百多万香港人「同心协力」一起「合作」,安然渡过这难关。



 
 
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1. 抗疫故事 2020-02-10 06:09:14
中国成功制造故仔令抗疫成功,
但香港没有故仔,咁香港咪大楟乐?
2. lol 2020-02-10 08:31:26
先决条件是讲古不可以驳古。

3. G 2020-02-10 08:43:09
此乃为何要及时制止谣言的原因。

4. Pathologists Debunk 13 Coronavirus Myths 2020-02-21 09:33:56

Pathologists Debunk 13 Coronavirus Myths



The coronavirus, now known as COVID-19, originated in Wuhan, China, and has spread to at least 26 other countries. Syra Madad, the senior director of the NYC Health + Hospitals System-wide Special Pathogens Program, and Stephen Morse, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University, debunked 13 of the most common myths about the coronavirus. They explained how packages from China won't make you sick and that getting COVID-19 is not a death sentence. They also debunked the idea that it affects only older people — anyone can get the coronavirus.


5. 日本笃魁 2020-02-23 21:22:45
日本笃魁:新肺炎病毒原来就是在美国首发的夺命流感病毒

美国的流感侵袭,根据美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)发表,有2600万人患上了流感,已造成1.4万人的死亡,因为许多常人并没有把流感当作是什么大病,从而掉以轻心没有去治疗,而一些有基础病的人,又或者是孩童,孕妇等抵抗力较弱的人,一旦患上流感很可能会危险,甚至是丧命。

而就在昨晚,朝日电视台报道了一则有关美国流感的新闻,以下为朝日电视台报道:
美国流感肆意,已造成1.4万人以上的死亡,在这么多流感的患者当中,很有可能出现了新型肺炎的感染者。



美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)发表了惊人的消息:对从疑似流感的患者身上采集到的样本进行检查,结果发现许多患者并非患有流感。





“我们得出的结果,判定它不是流感,可能是新冠肺炎。”



目前,纽约和洛杉矶等大城市开始重新评估现有的检测体制,如果没有掌握感染的实际情况,即便是美国也可能会出现这样的情况,而之所有会出现这样的情况,针对这个,朝日电视台记者采访了街上的美国民众,似乎找到了答案。


说实在话,我不怎么去医院,即便是很简单的检查,也要花不少钱。



保险每个月要交200多美金,去医院做检查还要交50美金,反正过几天他就会自己好了。



根据朝日电视台报道,在2018年美国约2750万人没有购买保险,即便是买了保险的人,也有很多人因为医疗费太高在生病的时候选择不去医院,自行治愈。



朝日电视台报道,2月7日美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)发表:新冠肺炎和流感的症状十分相似,朝日电视台认为虽然美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)没有直言,但是很多声音认为,新冠肺炎正在美国扩散,日本网友评论:
6. 张学友《等风雨经过》 2020-02-26 21:36:47
张学友《等风雨经过》
7. 李居明 2020-02-28 09:10:05
李居明:只要全港电视台重播《龙珠》,就可以化解呢场疫症

为什么到今时今日仍有娥粉呢?试以李居明大师为例。日前拙文见报后,友人告诉我:「上星期无意中听收音机 ,李居明话今次疫情有两个生肖可以避过 ,一个系龙,一个系牛,佢话龙喺火中出世, 可以抗疫。咁香港点样化解呢场疫症呢?大师话只要电视台同心做一样嘢,就冇问题,佢话:『只要全港电视台重播《龙珠》,就可以化解呢场疫症。』听落佢唔似讲笑,而系好认真咁讲。」

原来抗疫秘技除了「剑指」,尚有《龙珠》!据说,李大师至今依然粉丝众多,尤其是在大陆。林郑的「成功」之道跟大师一样:只要有「关键白痴」支持,那就够了。白痴不必人多,最重要是他们有钱,或有枪。

==============================

来源:https://lih.kg/1900515
以上内容皆为转发,只供备份参考。上述内容并不代表本站立场。
8. 娥粉 2020-02-28 09:48:49
如果觉得被点到头晕嘅, 就尽信 she 不如无 she 啦.
9. 赖岳谦 2020-03-03 00:22:12

《无色觉醒》 赖岳谦 |一场病毒抗疫战争?美俄网路舆论开打!|202002

10. 特朗普终於承认 2020-03-06 11:57:40

特朗普终於承认,新冠肺炎就是之前的美国流感

11. 李显龙 2020-03-07 16:44:48
针对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,李显龙首度发声,如果出现两种情况,将来轻微病着或不必住院。新加坡应对新型冠状病毒肺炎,总理演讲。

12. 向泛民说不 2020-03-07 20:43:41
民屎国家的神炒作,这个病毒将会像流感一样一直存在,人类要和这个病毒共同生存。

如果是这样,有没有疫苗,那么其实越年轻,越中招,就越好,正如老美所说,对健康的人没有影响,会自己好,然后会有抗体,以后就不怕被感染了。
13. 李显龙 2020-03-12 23:29:16
PM Lee on COVID-19: 
Situation in Singapore under control; not moving DORSCON level to red

14. 外交部发言人赵立坚 2020-03-13 11:29:21
在北京,外交部发言人赵立坚在社文网站Twitter贴文,指可能是美军将新型冠状病毒带到中国武汉,认为美国欠中国一个解释,要求美国展现透明度,公开数据。

不过,赵立坚未有对他的指控,提供任何证据。
美国国家安全顾问奥布莱恩,早前指控中方在新型肺炎疫情爆发初期,掩盖疫情,透明度不足,令世界延迟了两个月去准备。



中国可能掌握了证据;例如当时有五个美国军人因「流感」入了武汉医院、及在撤走晒人员之美国领事馆花园找到8个盛载危险生化物容器。

新闻来源连结:
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1514136-20200313.htm?spTabChangeable=0%2525252520
15. 美国传召中国大使抗议 2020-03-14 12:27:50

美国传召中国大使抗议外交部发言人指美军带病毒到武汉

美国国务院传召中国驻美大使崔天凯,抗议中国外交部发言人赵立坚,指控美军可能将新型冠状病毒带到中国武汉。中国驻美大使馆未有回应。

美国国务院发表声明指,传播阴谋论是危险及可笑,为了中国人民及全世界的利益,美国希望向北京当局显示不会容忍。

赵立坚早前在社交网站上,反击美国国家安全顾问奥布莱恩指中国隐暪新型冠状病毒疫情,令世界延迟了两个月去准备应对,又指可能是美军将病毒带到武汉,美国欠中国一个解释,要求美国展现透明度,公开数据。不过赵立坚未有提供任何证据证明对美军的指控。

今次好睇, 如果阿爷提出证据, 咁美国佬就要交代几个发烧军人返美之后情况, 但系台湾佬传闻几条友全部瓜晒 (唔知系肺炎定 CIA灭口). 
18. metroradio.com.hk 2020-03-14 23:38:43

报道说英国计划先让六至七成人染病达到群体免疫

14/3/2020 15:25

        英国传媒说, 英国政府或已放弃遏阻疫情, 改为采取一种大胆的防疫手段, 令到六成至七成人先染病, 康复后, 达到「群体免疫」, 不会再传染给其他未染病的人, 希望赶在下次冬季来临前达到目标.
        英国政府首席科学顾问瓦伦斯说, 想彻底压制疫情是不可能, 因为年底冬季疫情会卷土重来. 英国防疫委员会成员表示, 要建立一定的社区免疫, 可以令到染病风险最高的组群获得保障.
        英国传媒说, 群体免疫的原理是靠接种疫苗获得免疫力, 但利用这种方法应付无疫苗的新冠病毒大流行, 会让人担心.
        前世卫官员表示, 群体免疫的做法, 有违世卫组织追踪所有病例的建议, 强调研究疫苗才是安全得多的方法.



19. 大帝 2020-03-15 00:22:40
如果病毒源自美国,美国邻国加拿大同墨西哥早在去年11月就爆发啦!再者,台湾封大陆无封美国,如果病毒源自美国,台湾的措施根本无用,但而家台湾措施有效,即证明台湾封咗源头,显示病毒来自大陆而非美国!
20. 特朗普同约翰逊真系胆生毛? 2020-03-15 11:24:57
20楼,人家在暗示美国佬在中国播毒,用"推特"讲的原因,不想直说只暗示源自美国,所以开头无需封美国。

如果真系美国播病毒,美国佬很清楚病毒特性,好似特朗普讲新冠肺炎难死人,只有老人或长期病患者有较高的死亡率,实质如特朗普所讲像一般季节性流感,唔洗医,佢讲宜家无人信,唯有叫个细佬英国讲,我哋都唔医,在无疫苗情况下实行"群体免疫",大家要问,美国和英国佬为何能咁有信心叫人唔洗医?特朗普同约翰逊真系胆生毛?



21. 推特 2020-03-15 12:07:08
https://youtu.be/bjexyS4DxpU
22. 真系搵鬼信 2020-03-15 12:37:32
特朗普二月中国病毒大爆发时讲新冠病毒杀伤力低,不用担心,就系人类救世主,三月中国成功抗疫美国爆发先讲,就系魔鬼,真系搵鬼信。



23. 群体染疫 2020-03-15 16:51:34

英美最新治疗方法:群体染疫



24. 达尔文 2020-03-15 22:27:05
「是要物竞天择,让人自生自灭吗?」

欧洲国家纷采取「锁国」禁足或关闭食肆等限制国民的活动,以围堵武汉肺炎病毒,英国周四公布防疫措施却曝露首相约翰逊消极的防疫思维。他除了呼吁民众注意衞生及出现病徵要在家自我隔离7天外,未有如欧洲国家般实施限制大型集会等措施,学校如常上课,医疗政策专家形容约翰逊此举犹如一场政治赌博...,有旅居英国的台湾民众更质疑做法根本像「物竞天择」,任由民众自生自灭。




英国确诊人数3月初开始大爆发,截至周六共有1,140人确诊及21人死亡,但街上戴口罩的人依旧屈指可数。政府周四公布的防疫措施几乎等同「没有措施」,美国有线新闻网络形容约翰逊的做法矛盾,一方面指英国正面对「这一世代以来最严重的公共衞生危机」,国民要准备「失去挚爱的亲友」,却没有如欧洲邻国般实施相应的严格预防措施,有旅英台湾人深感不满,质问:「是要物竞天择,让人自生自灭吗?」更有人讽刺道:「差点忘了,达尔文就是英国人嘛。」约翰逊周四与专家在记者会上公布措施,尽管专家估计英国可能有5,000至一万人染病,但政府仅要求出现持续咳嗽或高温症状的人先行自我隔离7天,呼吁长者不要经常外出,其他配套政策可说是零。英格兰首席医疗官惠蒂(Chris Whitty)更说疑似感染者不会接受新型冠状病毒筛检,检测会以已住院者优先。有网民对英国的方案感不满,指欧洲各国应变措施中,只有英国「不关闭学校」、「不关闭餐厅」、「不全面禁止体育赛事」、「不禁大型集会」,也没有旅游禁令,根本是「全无」措施。伦敦经济学院全球医疗政策助理教授温汉姆(Clare Wenham)估计,英国政府不希望引起民众恐慌,以及希望公众配合防疫措施才没有大动作,「他(约翰逊)没有如特朗普般做事及关闭边境,我们知道这是没有效果的,他现在采取一个相当权宜之计——但是,这是一场赌博。如果他们误判情况就是一场政治赌博,如果所有实施停课、禁大众旅游及大型集会的国会出现确诊人数下降,而英国上升的话——这是赌博」。
 
英国传媒也开始讨论政府用意,指当局虽然没有明言,但背后其实是任由大多数民众染病,然后可以免疫,是极危险的防疫策略。许多专家批评英国政策太过松散,是拿人命开玩笑,急增的死亡人数将令约翰逊生备受压力,有消息指政府下周将宣布提升防疫计划,禁止群众集会,但会否有其他措施仍不得而知。
25. Yuval Harari 2020-03-16 14:13:32
To defeat an epidemic, people need to trust scientific experts, citizens need to trust public authorities, and countries need to trust each other.

Over the last few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, in public authorities and in international cooperation.

To prevent a catastrophe we need to regain the trust we have lost. You cannot defeat a global epidemic through propaganda and isolation. The real antidote is scientific knowledge and global cooperation.

Yuval Harari
26. Yuval Harari 2020-03-16 16:18:05

In the Battle Against Coronavirus, Humanity Lacks Leadership

Many people blame the coronavirus epidemic on globalization, and say that the only way to prevent more such outbreaks is to de-globalize the world. Build walls, restrict travel, reduce trade. However, while short-term quarantine is essential to stop epidemics, long-term isolationism will lead to economic collapse without offering any real protection against infectious diseases. Just the opposite. The real antidote to epidemic is not segregation, but rather cooperation.

Epidemics killed millions of people long before the current age of globalization. In the 14th century there were no airplanes and cruise ships, and yet the Black Death spread from East Asia to Western Europe in little more than a decade. It killed between 75 million and 200 million people – more than a quarter of the population of Eurasia. In England, four out of ten people died. The city of Florence lost 50,000 of its 100,000 inhabitants.

In March 1520, a single smallpox carrier – Francisco de Eguía – landed in Mexico. At the time, Central America had no trains, buses or even donkeys. Yet by December a smallpox epidemic devastated the whole of Central America, killing according to some estimates up to a third of its population.

In 1918 a particularly virulent strain of flu managed to spread within a few months to the remotest corners of the world. It infected half a billion people – more than a quarter of the human species. It is estimated that the flu killed 5% of the population of India. On the island of Tahiti 14% died. On Samoa 20%. Altogether the pandemic killed tens of millions of people – and perhaps as high as 100 million – in less than a year. More than the First World War killed in four years of brutal fighting.

In the century that passed since 1918, humankind became ever more vulnerable to epidemics, due to a combination of growing populations and better transport. A modern metropolis such as Tokyo or Mexico City offers pathogens far richer hunting grounds than medieval Florence, and the global transport network is today far faster than in 1918. A virus can make its way from Paris to Tokyo and Mexico City in less than 24 hours. We should therefore have expected to live in an infectious hell, with one deadly plague after another.

However, both the incidence and impact of epidemics have actually gone down dramatically. Despite horrendous outbreaks such as AIDS and Ebola, in the twenty-first century epidemics kill a far smaller proportion of humans than in any previous time since the Stone Age. This is because the best defense humans have against pathogens is not isolation – it is information. Humanity has been winning the war against epidemics because in the arms race between pathogens and doctors, pathogens rely on blind mutations while doctors rely on the scientific analysis of information.

An influenza camp, where patients were given "fresh air treatment," in 1918.

Bettmann Archive/Getty Images

Winning the War on Pathogens

When the Black Death struck in the 14th century, people had no idea what causes it and what could be done about it. Until the modern era, humans usually blamed diseases on angry gods, malicious demons or bad air, and did not even suspect the existence of bacteria and viruses. People believed in angels and fairies, but they could not imagine that a single drop of water might contain an entire armada of deadly predators. Therefore when the Black Death or smallpox came to visit, the best thing the authorities could think of doing was organizing mass prayers to various gods and saints. It didn’t help. Indeed, when people gathered together for mass prayers, it often caused mass infections.

During the last century, scientists, doctors and nurses throughout the world pooled information and together managed to understand both the mechanism behind epidemics and the means of countering them. The theory of evolution explained why and how new diseases erupt and old diseases become more virulent. Genetics enabled scientists to spy on the pathogens’ own instruction manual. While medieval people never discovered what caused the Black Death, it took scientists just two weeks to identify the novel coronavirus, sequence its genome and develop a reliable test to identify infected people.

Once scientists understood what causes epidemics, it became much easier to fight them. Vaccinations, antibiotics, improved hygiene, and a much better medical infrastructure have allowed humanity to gain the upper hand over its invisible predators. In 1967, smallpox still infected 15 million people and killed 2 million of them. But in the following decade a global campaign of smallpox vaccination was so successful, that in 1979 the World Health Organization declared that humanity had won, and that smallpox had been completely eradicated. In 2019 not a single person was either infected or killed by smallpox.

A sparse international departures terminal at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on March 7. Days later, as concerns over the coronavirus grew, President Trump announced restrictions on travelers from Europe.

Spencer Platt—Getty Images

Guard Our Border

What does this history teach us for the current Coronavirus epidemic?

First, it implies that you cannot protect yourself by permanently closing your borders. Remember that epidemics spread rapidly even in the Middle Ages, long before the age of globalization. So even if you reduce your global connections to the level of England in 1348 – that still would not be enough. To really protect yourself through isolation, going medieval won’t do. You would have to go full Stone Age. Can you do that?

Secondly, history indicates that real protection comes from the sharing of reliable scientific information, and from global solidarity. When one country is struck by an epidemic, it should be willing to honestly share information about the outbreak without fear of economic catastrophe – while other countries should be able to trust that information, and should be willing to extend a helping hand rather than ostracize the victim. Today, China can teach countries all over the world many important lessons about coronavirus, but this demands a high level of international trust and cooperation.

International cooperation is needed also for effective quarantine measures. Quarantine and lock-down are essential for stopping the spread of epidemics. But when countries distrust one another and each country feels that it is on its own, governments hesitate to take such drastic measures. If you discover 100 coronavirus cases in your country, would you immediately lock down entire cities and regions? To a large extent, that depends on what you expect from other countries. Locking down your own cities could lead to economic collapse. If you think that other countries will then come to your help – you will be more likely to adopt this drastic measure. But if you think that other countries will abandon you, you would probably hesitate until it is too late.

Perhaps the most important thing people should realize about such epidemics, is that the spread of the epidemic in any country endangers the entire human species. This is because viruses evolve. Viruses like the corona originate in animals, such as bats. When they jump to humans, initially the viruses are ill-adapted to their human hosts. While replicating within humans, the viruses occasionally undergo mutations. Most mutations are harmless. But every now and then a mutation makes the virus more infectious or more resistant to the human immune system – and this mutant strain of the virus will then rapidly spread in the human population. Since a single person might host trillions of virus particles that undergo constant replication, every infected person gives the virus trillions of new opportunities to become more adapted to humans. Each human carrier is like a gambling machine that gives the virus trillions of lottery tickets – and the virus needs to draw just one winning ticket in order to thrive .

This is not mere speculation. Richard Preston’s Crisis in the Red Zone describes exactly such a chain of events in the 2014 Ebola outbreak. The outbreak began when some Ebola viruses jumped from a bat to a human. These viruses made people very sick, but they were still adapted to living inside bats more than to the human body. What turned Ebola from a relatively rare disease into a raging epidemic was a single mutation in a single gene in one Ebola virus that infected a single human, somewhere in the Makona area of West Africa. The mutation enabled the mutant Ebola strain – called the Makona strain – to link to the cholesterol transporters of human cells. Now, instead of cholesterol, the transporters were pulling Ebola into the cells. This new Makona strain was four times more infectious to humans.

As you read these lines, perhaps a similar mutation is taking place in a single gene in the coronavirus that infected some person in Tehran, Milan or Wuhan. If this is indeed happening, this is a direct threat not just to Iranians, Italians or Chinese, but to your life, too. People all over the world share a life-and-death interest not to give the coronavirus such an opportunity. And that means that we need to protect every person in every country.

In the 1970s humanity managed to defeat the smallpox virus because all people in all countries were vaccinated against smallpox. If even one country failed to vaccinate its population, it could have endangered the whole of humankind, because as long as the smallpox virus existed and evolved somewhere, it could always spread again everywhere.

In the fight against viruses, humanity needs to closely guard borders. But not the borders between countries. Rather, it needs to guard the border between the human world and the virus-sphere. Planet earth is teaming with countless viruses, and new viruses are constantly evolving due to genetic mutations. The borderline separating this virus-sphere from the human world passes inside the body of each and every human being. If a dangerous virus manages to penetrate this border anywhere on earth, it puts the whole human species in danger.

Over the last century, humanity has fortified this border like never before. Modern healthcare systems have been built to serve as a wall on that border, and nurses, doctors and scientists are the guards who patrol it and repel intruders. However, long sections of this border have been left woefully exposed. There are hundreds of millions of people around the world who lack even basic healthcare services. This endangers all of us. We are used to thinking about health in national terms, but providing better healthcare for Iranians and Chinese helps protect Israelis and Americans too from epidemics. This simple truth should be obvious to everyone, but unfortunately it escapes even some of the most important people in the world.

President Trump leaves the podium after announcing a national emergency during a news conference about the coronavirus at the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 13.

Alex Brandon—AP

A Leaderless World

Today humanity faces an acute crisis not only due to the coronavirus, but also due to the lack of trust between humans. To defeat an epidemic, people need to trust scientific experts, citizens need to trust public authorities, and countries need to trust each another. Over the last few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, in public authorities and in international cooperation. As a result, we are now facing this crisis bereft of global leaders that can inspire, organize and finance a coordinated global response.

During the 2014 Ebola epidemic, the U.S. served as that kind of leader. The U.S. fulfilled a similar role also during the 2008 financial crisis, when it rallied behind it enough countries to prevent global economic meltdown. But in recent years the U.S. has resigned its role as global leader. The current U.S. administration has cut support for international organizations like the World Health Organization, and has made it very clear to the world that the U.S. no longer has any real friends – it has only interests. When the coronavirus crisis erupted, the U.S. stayed on the sidelines, and has so far refrained from taking a leading role. Even if it eventually tries to assume leadership, trust in the current U.S. administration has been eroded to such an extent, that few countries would be willing to follow it. Would you follow a leader whose motto is “Me First”?

The void left by the U.S. has not been filled by anyone else. Just the opposite. Xenophobia, isolationism and distrust now characterize most of the international system. Without trust and global solidarity we will not be able to stop the coronavirus epidemic, and we are likely to see more such epidemics in future. But every crisis is also an opportunity. Hopefully the current epidemic will help humankind realize the acute danger posed by global disunity.

To take one prominent example, the epidemic could be a golden opportunity for the E.U. to regain the popular support it has lost in recent years. If the more fortunate members of the E.U. swiftly and generously send money, equipment and medical personnel to help their hardest-hit colleagues, this would prove the worth of the European ideal better than any number of speeches. If, on the other hand, each country is left to fend for itself, then the epidemic might sound the death-knell of the union.

In this moment of crisis, the crucial struggle takes place within humanity itself. If this epidemic results in greater disunity and mistrust among humans, it will be the virus’s greatest victory. When humans squabble – viruses double. In contrast, if the epidemic results in closer global cooperation, it will be a victory not only against the coronavirus, but against all future pathogens.

Copyright © Yuval Noah Harari 2020

Contact us at editors@time.com.

27. 大乡里 2020-03-17 02:03:10
群体染疫看似合理,但不道德,因越多人染疫,病毒再变种的机会越大,绝对危险。

28. 钟南山 2020-03-18 21:29:18

钟南山:无证据显示感染后永远免疫 集体免疫不可行

【Now新闻台】国家衞健委高级别专家组组长钟南山表示,目前未有证据显示一次感染新型冠状病毒后就会永远免疫,认为不能够以集体免疫方式抗疫。

钟南山并表示新型肺炎传染性较沙士和中东呼吸综合症都要高,死亡率亦高於流感,目前仍未发现疗效满意的药物,最重要是国际间合作,尽快完成研制疫苗。

他认为武汉於疫情初期防护意识不够,防护装备亦不够,导致比较多医护人员受感染。他提醒外国医护人员要做好防护,同时追查感染源头防疫,建议外国不要等到疑似患者出现病徵才去处理,疑似患者家人或亲密接触者亦要提早检测和隔离。


30. Yuval Harari 2020-04-02 11:19:48

Homo Deus author Yuval Harari shares pandemic lessons from past and warnings for future

1 April 2020

In contrast, when the coronavirus epidemic began, it took scientists just two weeks to identify the novel virus, sequence its genome and develop a reliable test to identify infected people. Doctors are winning the arms race with pathogens, because pathogens rely on blind mutations, while doctors rely on information. Countries can send information, experts and equipment to help one another contain the plague. Governments and banks can work out a common plan to prevent economic collapse.

However, there is one big caveat. The fact that humanity has the power to rein in plagues, does not mean it always has the wisdom to use that power well. In 2015 I wrote in Homo Deus that “while we cannot be certain that some new Ebola outbreak or an unknown flu strain won’t sweep across the globe and kill millions, we will not regard it as an inevitable natural calamity. Rather, we will see it as an inexcusable human failure and demand the heads of those responsible. … humankind has the knowledge and tools to prevent plagues, and if an epidemic nevertheless gets out of control, it is due to human incompetence rather than divine anger.”

I think these words still hold true today. What we are seeing around the world now is not an inevitable natural disaster. It is a human failure. Irresponsible governments neglected their health care systems, failed to react on time, and are at present still failing to cooperate effectively on a global level. We have the power to stop this, but so far we lack the necessary wisdom.

Q: China is attempting to portray its success at controlling the epidemic, saying it has largely stamped out domestic spread. Are authoritarian regimes, which can enforce lockdowns, better equipped to deal with pandemics than Western democracies?

Not necessarily. It is easier to deal with an epidemic if you can rely on a self-motivated and well-informed population than if you have to police an ignorant and suspicious population. Can you make millions of people wash their hands with soap every day by placing policemen or cameras in their toilets? That’s very difficult. But if you educate people, and if people trust the information they get, they can do the right thing on their own initiative.

I learned in school that viruses and bacteria cause disease. I learned that washing my hands with soap can remove or kill these pathogens. I trust this information. So I wash my hands of my own volition. And so do billions of other people.

The problem is that in recent years, populist politicians in many countries – including democratic countries – have deliberately undermined people’s trust in science, in the media, and in public authorities. Without such trust, people aren’t sure what to do. The solution is not to impose an authoritarian regime. The solution is to rebuild trust in science, in the media and in public authorities. Once you have such trust, you can rely on people to do the right thing even without constant surveillance and fear of punishment.

Q: We’ve seen countries like China using smartphones and apps to collect citizens’ location and health data to fight the epidemic. Could global pandemics drive the development of a more biometric state?

Yes, that is a major danger. The coronavirus epidemic might mark an important watershed in the history of surveillance. First, because it might legitimate and normalise the deployment of mass surveillance tools in countries that have so far rejected them. Secondly, and even more importantly, it signifies a dramatic transition from “over the skin” to “under the skin” surveillance. Previously, governments monitored mainly your actions in the world – where you go, who you meet. Now they become more interested in what is happening inside your body. In your medical condition, body temperature, blood pressure. That kind of biometric information can tell the government far more about you than ever before.

Imagine some totalitarian state in 10 years that requires every citizen to wear a biometric bracelet that monitors you 24 hours a day. By using our growing understanding of the human body and brain, and using the immense powers of machine learning, the regime might be able for the first time in history to know what each and every citizen is feeling each and every moment. If you listen to a speech of the Great Leader on Television, and the biometric sensors pick up the telltale signs of anger (higher blood pressure, slight rise in body temperature, increased activity in the amygdala), you’ll be in deep trouble. You could smile and clap your hands mechanically, but if you are actually angry, the regime will know that.

Governments might argue that this dystopian scenario has nothing to do with the current measures being taken to combat Covid-19. These are just temporary measures taken during a state of emergency. But temporary measures have a nasty habit of outlasting emergencies, especially as there is always a new emergency lurking on the horizon. Even when coronavirus cases are down to zero, some governments might argue that they need to keep the new surveillance systems because they fear a second wave of coronavirus, or because there is a new Ebola strain evolving in central Africa, or because they want to protect people from seasonal flu. Why stop with halting coronavirus?

A big battle has been raging in recent years over our privacy. The coronavirus crisis could be the battle’s tipping point. For when people are given a choice between privacy and health, they will usually choose health. But asking people to choose between privacy and health is, in fact, the very root of the problem. This is a false dichotomy. We can and should enjoy both privacy and health. We can choose to protect our health and stop the coronavirus epidemic not by instituting totalitarian surveillance regimes, but rather by educating and empowering citizens. Remember that when people have a good scientific education, and when they trust public authorities to tell them the truth, people can do the right thing on their own initiative.

Q: Some countries, such as the US and those in Europe, were slow to act even though they had months to prepare while the epidemic raged in China before spreading. What should we learn from this? 

I hope the main lesson from this epidemic is that people realise that we are all in this together. This isn’t a Chinese crisis or an Italian crisis, it is a global crisis. People all over the world share the same experiences, fears and interests. From the virus’s perspective, we are all similar, we are all human prey. And from the human perspective, as long as the epidemic spreads in any one country, it endangers all of us, because it can reach all of us. Therefore we need a global plan to fight this epidemic.

Q: Could this pandemic lead countries to reassess globalisation and install more barriers in terms of borders, trade and culture?

Some people indeed blame the coronavirus epidemic on globalisation, and say that to prevent more such outbreaks we should de-globalise the world. But this is a complete mistake. Epidemics spread long before the era of globalisation. In the Middle Ages viruses travelled at the speed of a packhorse, and in most places they could infect only small towns and villages. Yet plagues such as the Black Death were far more deadly than today. If you want to defend yourself from epidemics by isolation, you will have to go back all the way to the Stone Age. This was the last time when humans were free from epidemics, because back then there were very few humans, with very few connections.

The real antidote to epidemics isn’t isolation and segregation, it is information and cooperation. The big advantage of humans over viruses is the ability to cooperate effectively. A coronavirus in China and a coronavirus in the USA cannot swap tips about how to infect humans. But China can teach the USA many valuable lessons about coronavirus and how to deal with it. More than that, China can actually send experts and equipment to directly help the USA. The viruses cannot do anything like that.

Unfortunately, due to the lack of leadership, we are not making the most of our ability to cooperate. Over the last few years, irresponsible politicians in various parts of the world have deliberately undermined trust in international cooperation. We are now paying the price for that. There seem to be no adults in the room.

Hopefully, we would soon see more and better cooperation at least in the following five fields:

1. Share reliable information. Countries that have already experienced the epidemic should teach other countries about it. Data from all over the world should be shared openly and speedily in the effort to contain the epidemic and develop medicines and vaccines.

2. Coordinate global production and fair distribution of essential medical equipment such as testing kits, protective gear and respiratory machines. Global coordination can overcome bottlenecks in production, and can make sure that the equipment goes to the countries that need it most, rather than to the richest countries.

3. Less-affected countries should send doctors, nurses and experts to the worst-affected countries, both to help them and to gain valuable experience. The centre of the epidemic keeps shifting. Previously it was China, now it is Europe, maybe next month it will be the USA and later on Brazil. If Brazil sends help to Italy today, maybe in two months when Italy recovers and Brazil is in crisis, Italy will repay the favour.

4. Create a global economic safety net to save the worst-hit countries and sectors. This is particularly important for poorer countries. Rich countries like the USA, Japan and Germany will be OK. But once the epidemic spreads to countries in Africa, the Middle East and South America, it could lead there to complete economic collapse, unless we have a global plan of action in place.

5. Formulate a global agreement on pre-screening of travellers that will allow a trickle of essential travellers to continue crossing borders. If the origin country carefully screens travellers before they board a plane, the destination country should feel safe to let them in.


31. 许冠杰 2020-04-13 00:12:34

许冠杰 2020 同舟共济网上演唱会 Sam Hui’s 2020 Online Concert


32. 香港01 2020-04-13 15:38:49

【政坛诸事町】林郑司局长开会小休睇许冠杰 强调无违限聚令

2020年4月12日

撰文:
最后更新日期:

新型肺炎疫情持续,歌神许冠杰今天(12日)直播演唱会,大会公布全球Facebook串流直播的总观看人数为2百万人,特首林郑月娥今天早上呼吁市民留家观看歌神演唱会,指演唱会令市民「更有理由安坐家中同心抗疫」。

林郑晚上上载相片,相中她与政务司司长张建宗、特首办主任陈国基、食衞局局长陈肇始及多名官员透过大营幕观看演唱会并鼓掌,她称整天下午都在开会,检视疫情发展及商讨第二轮「防疫抗疫基金」的具体安排,不过她们亦忙里偷闲,透过视像欣赏唱会演唱,又强调今天开会属履行政府功能,获限聚令豁免。

林郑月娥发文表示,今天虽为复活节和星期天,但她和相关司局长及多位公务员同事,整天下午也在开会,检视疫情发展及商讨第二轮「防疫抗疫基金」的具体安排,不过她们「忙里偷闲」,透过视像欣赏许冠杰网上演唱会《同舟共济》,她感谢许冠杰在疫情中为港人注入正能量。

相片中,她与张建宗、陈国基、陈肇始及至少三名问责团队官员,透过大营幕观看演唱会并鼓掌。林郑重申,「今天开会属履行政府功能,故在禁止群组聚集(即多过四人聚集)规例下获豁免」;但她们同样有采取预防措施,包括保持人与人之间的距离,亦全程佩戴口罩。