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41.
蜕变中嘅懒人 |
| 2014-05-30 04:38 |
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回大寶二寶兄 懶人諗，其實呢場戲有三個主角，欲正確估中內情，必須要以馬後炮法則全面分析晒至有機，懶人試以劇本性格分析，三個主角及道具係： 主角：1. 正苦波叔 2. 眾發展商 3. 迅鵝黃生 ---- 道具：A.科進路地皮 B.科研路地皮 1. 正苦波叔：將白石角改為住宅用地後，由於唔多暸解地產界人脈內情，以為3. 迅鵝黃生必然托市，當港鐵第二次流標即黑面指責，豈料打開A標書內，原本以為衰極都岀（估）5500嘅3. 迅鵝黃生支標竞然幾乎位列榜尾，最高嗰支都係（估）3800，即茫茫然宣佈流標，結果已知俾人炳完又炳，到呢次打開B標書睇重大鑊，最勇嘅英軍只得3300，真係一蟹不如一蟹，最令1. 正苦波叔死心嘅係3. 迅鵝黃生（估）竟然包尾，於是把心一橫豁岀去----成交！ 2. 眾發展商：正如亮劍兄已經講咗白石角地皮已今非昔比，唔值錢，諗住3. 迅鵝黃生支標多數會強勁，赢咗蝕硬，於是乎喺A標書位位搏懵價，唔得就算，結果流標。到B岀台，2. 眾發展商諗住正苦唔肯平賣，無乜人再有興趣落標，於是喺少貓三四隻嘅情況下俾英軍3300冷手執個熱煎堆，笑到見牙唔見眼令市場嘩然！ 3. 迅鵝黃生：大量蟹貨未回籠，無銀用都要扮勁落標，如果唔咁做2. 眾發展商博懵成功，自己必成仁，但係落重標中咗重大鑊，好彩係暗標，於是鬼鬼祟祟落個雞碎價，希望有傻佬陪死或者自已中標就可以溝淡，結果A流標，3. 迅鵝黃生舒服晒，到咗B殺到就重施故技，結果..............！ 以上係懶人以馬後炮法則，對呢單戲劇性事件嘅全面分析，结果係一定中嘅，因為係事實，但係情節就係靠估，如果各位網友認為中咗，就可以據此再諗吓重有嗰5幅地嘅下場，如果唔認同，又可以發表意見，吹吓水與網友同樂。
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42.
蜕变中嘅懒人 |
| 2014-05-30 04:43 |
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嗚孚哀哉一代好友，身經百戰，不敵一介文人，中伏领野，果其： 獵犬終歸山上喪，將軍難免陣中亡。
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43.
大寶二寶 |
| 2014-05-30 07:46 |
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回41 懒兄
懒兄所言雖不中， 不遠矣。
正苦今次露左底， 標價低一樣有机會批出， 黎緊如果吾係勁靚地，發展商落標價會係偷雞價，可見黎緊呢D驚嚇價將久吾久會出現。
共勉之， 哈哈！
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44.
攬住隻狗 |
| 2014-05-30 08:33 |
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樓下醉貓陳飲飽紅酒醉醺醺攬住隻狗瞌可以買到平樓咪???
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Feel pity for the owners of 2 properties I bought in 2009. One owner sold his to move and live with his parents. The other persuaded by the agent and sold his investment property, but regretted in final settlement (though he had made a decent profit). I bought these properties for long term investment because I could afford so. Thanks Dr. for the strategy and reinforcing my belief.
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46.
nobody |
| 2014-05-30 12:20 |
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如果大陸降準，但投資環境又唔改善（國進民退），但香港又有BSD，咁錢會去邊？ 其實歐洲都可能又會放水。
香港文匯網援引《人民日報》海外版報導，經濟增速減緩，房地產價格出現下跌，實體經濟融資難，地方債務風險，產能過剩，外貿疲軟……當前中國經濟有很多問題亟須解決。民生證券的報告描述稱，中國經濟正處於增長速度換擋期、結構調整陣痛期和前期政策消化期三期疊加的關鍵時期，經濟從高速增長向中高速增長換擋已是必然。從供給端來看，人口紅利衰退，儲蓄率出現拐點，潛在增速下滑，勞動力比較優勢喪失。從需求端來看，內部人口結構拐點導致房地產引擎失速，外部全球化紅利衰退，全球經濟從失衡到再平衡，導致外需和外資引擎失速。
在很多人看來，經濟乏力時，需要較為寬鬆的貨幣政策進行刺激，降低存款準備金率是大概率事件。摩根大通中國經濟學家朱海斌預計2014年將會出現兩輪存款準備金率下調，各為50個基點，一次是在第3季，另一次是在第4季。
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hi Nobody bro , The QE money fom europe may go to Dim sum bond market. I read an article saying that 79 billion euro go to dim sum bond issued by china banks in this 5 months . the RMB depreciation actually help those yield lovers go to the cnh bond market. For those who have bought cnh bonds already , they bought higher yield cnh bond than before in order to cover the depreciation loss .
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to Alan Pepper Bro , You are just like english version of " treasure hong kong " bro .
I do agree that the 2008 crisis has changed the rules of investment market. All govts in worldwide are afraid of " too big to fail" crisis. You see in CHINA now , the china govt let the 2nd tier cities to have " 限降令" . This rule is actually unfair for those who have no house and wait for the property crisis .
All govt in worldwide don't want to see 1997-2003 HK property crisis again . HK govt did very few things to save the property market in HK . However, this is the reason HK property market is more healthier coz it experienced the " kill the weak and stong left " prcoess . ANYWAY, I can see the trend that govt will save the financial market when the crisis come. This only blocks the wealth redistribution . The richer get richer , the poorer still very poor. THEREFORE MARKET just penalize the patient tenants instead of rich ppl.
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Hi Nobody bro , the RRR reduction is helping the property market and in china. The govt notice something boiled for long long time.
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50.
自我陶醉 |
| 2014-05-30 14:48 |
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To 48/F 小陽
你相信市場有無形之手嗎？ 在經濟學上， 這些限價令都不會成功的。 相反， 它只會令負債高的發展商加速滅亡， 到時國內樓價和經濟只會受更大打擊， 最後， 最有耐性的投資者才是真正贏家。
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自醉兄， 你返來啦！welcome on board .
你又去左邊？
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52.
自我陶醉 |
| 2014-05-30 15:11 |
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Oh, surprise ! Is Alan Pepper and 珍惜香港兄 are the same one ? or just they are using the very same words as each other ? then we mistook them are the same one ?
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No , I think they are not the same one .
But similar approach to talk about life .
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Yes , sure , They have had each different personal style , but both of them are excellent .
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自醉兄， 我當然相信無形之手，我都知越禁爆，但是最驚半死不生，中國好學唔學，學美國救市，但學D唔學D，美國都話有bear sterns 和雷曼爆煲，大陸唔敢俾佢地爆，因為晤知爆左點救，樓市爆更驚，政權不保，所以大陸諗橋，落降令、減rrr丶點心債丶等等。
所以我估可能中國樓市限價化,A股化,半死不生，zombie 市。
我覺得對patient tenant 不公平咖！ 因為佢地等那麼久，諗住爆煲執平貨，點知殺出中央駛橫手死托，結果唔上唔落卡住左囉!
那麼他們等不等？等到幾時？
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還有 stress test --退休高官Geithner 話佢想救雷曼，不過有官唔制，因為d官話用public money 救金融大鰐，驚影響選舉,你知啦！平民90% ,有$人10％。所以唔救雷曼先有金融風暴。
但是大睦一黨專政，佢一定會救.
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59.
nobody |
| 2014-05-31 00:23 |
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2009－10年美國其中一個救市方案係建立所謂"壞銀行"去收賺不良資產，其實都係參考大陸四大行上市前既做法，但佢地最後認為佢地冇可能做到中共透明度咁低先放棄。 今日又出消息要"加大「定向降準」力度"，其實又係比錢益自己友，以大陸人既性格，可能又係詐詐帝帝出去買野，因為國太基建己經太多，又咁多打貪，出去買野先最有水腳，如果係咁，就可能出現日本90後放鬆銀根但錢冇留係本土反而出左去炒起成個東南亞，再加上大陸突然人仔一次眨值就令東南亞爆煲，但呢次我估又唔會好似上次一樣，今次錢會去兩極既市場，一係DM，一係就非洲呢D前沿市場(Frontier market)。咁又會唔會煲呢？照計短期內又唔會，因為DM食得起呢D資金，而FM同亞洲比個基數又太細，打劫都打唔到幾多。
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60.
珍惜香港 |
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| 2014-05-31 01:17 |
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【珍惜香港】
TO：55/F 順民
Obviously, I am not Alan, and Alan is not me. He is a positive guy, though I rarely have chance to discuss with him. A recent topic was about competitiveness. Here, 亮劍, 法子 and PP are really excellent. I am just "blowing water" from time to time! TO：56/F 小陽
Sorry on using English. I am not in good state tonight with long Chinese typing. I guess you were just being ironic to describe the situation of patient tenants as unfair. The world is never fair to anyone, but we can't say it unfair if the expectations of those black-hearts were no longer realized. Waiting for a disaster, and hoping a disaster to come, are actually the same. When someone waits for a disaster in order to take advantage from it, he won't feel happy if it didn't come. This is obviously a negative thinking, a black-heart. As time flies, his wish for a disaster becomes stronger and stronger, and he becomes more and more negative. Negative people won't have a positve future. This is simply a matter of karma.
That's why I always say, don't be a black-heart. We should be glad to see the Chinese government being able to successfully resolve a crisis, and stay away from disasters. As said, the World is moving forward, China is moving forward, and Hong Kong is moving forward as well. There is no turning back. That's why we shouldn't keep a 20-years old mindset to foresee what would happen 30 years from now. The only way for a negative guy to save himself, is to turn positive, which is a painful process. He has to face the fact, and accept the loss from being negative, through which he would learn to value what he has today, and never go negative again. I am delighted to see a trend of positive movements in this lovely home place.
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