41.
引刀一快 |
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2014-08-18 20:59 |
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Lady first!
To 小陽
主席總理都做緊嘢,但係大陸房地産咁大嘅問題,點都要跌一跌,痛一痛。 同美國一齐鬥多債,我覺得玩唔過佢喔。
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43.
自我陶醉 |
2014-08-18 21:19 |
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Oscar 兄,
指教唔敢當, 不過大家可以讨论吓:
1. "10年債息在2-3厘上、下浮動,是否意味著美國將長期保持低息?"
長債與聯邦基金利率没有直接关係, 所以不会對FED fund rate 有任何啟示。 個人認为現在維持在2~3厘, 只是對之前從1.3% 升至 3% 的中期調整, 長達30債息下跌大周期, 在前年应已經完結。
2. "10年債息和(美國)按揭利息有何关係?”
请注意是美國而不是香港按揭利息。 要解釋会好長, 所以我懶惰在网上抄了一段, 希望是唔好介意。
The traditional, residential 30-year mortgage is VERY similar to a bond investment. There is a long-term investment horizon, with fixed cash payments over the term of the note. But the principal is returned incrementally during the life of the loan.
So, since mortgages are ‘more risky’ than the 10-year treasury bond, they will carry a certain premium that is tied to how much more risky an individual is as a borrower than the US government.
And here it is… no one actually directly changes the interest rate on 10-year treasuries. Not even the Fed. The Fed sets a price constraint that it will sell bonds at during its periodic auctions. Buyers bid for those, and the resulting prices imply the yield rate. If the yield rate for current 10-year bonds increases, then banks take it as a sign that everyone in the investment community sees some sign of increased risk in the future. This might be from inflation. This might be from uncertain economic performance. But whatever it is, they operate with some rule of thumb that their 30-year mortgage rate for excellent credit borrowers will be the 10-year plus 1.5% or something. And they publish their rates.
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44.
自我陶醉 |
2014-08-18 21:24 |
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45.
引刀一快 |
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2014-08-18 21:29 |
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Oscar Lam 兄
中國政府的辦事能力的確強,但係都唔可能達到點石成金,幾年前新總理上臺就係諗住打楼价立威,當年打楼价其中一個原因,就係怕有今日嘅局面,如果咩都搞得掂,駛咩打楼价。
2008嘅奧運開幕,直情係民族纪念日,個個股民都諗住奧運期間國家会救市,做好體面,點知國家就係利用呢個机会,好好咁教育咗全國股民!就係果日股災!
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46.
自我陶醉 |
2014-08-18 21:42 |
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Oscar 兄,
試想想, 如果十年債息真的與美息有关, 債息從1.3%升了超過一倍, 又怎可能一點都没有影響美息呢? 對嗎? 所以, 以十年債息回軟, 引申到港息不会升是一個不合理的假設。
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47.
Oscar Lam |
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2014-08-18 21:51 |
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自醉兄, 感謝你的詳細解釋。個人認同美國明年中加息的机会較大。
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48.
P-的疑惑 |
2014-08-18 21:57 |
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香港的銀行就算不加按揭息,但將(P-3.15)改为P-2 P-1或P加1就夠死啦! 咪甘老定呀!
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49.
Oscar Lam |
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2014-08-18 22:01 |
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引刀兄, 中國政府做事,確實很難預计。不過總體而言,我對於中國的經濟發展還是很有信心的。
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50.
引刀一快 |
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2014-08-19 00:26 |
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陣痛,必然会来,作爲中國人,梗係睇好自己國家喇,不過,忍住陣痛吧。
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51.
Oscar Lam |
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2014-08-19 06:39 |
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歷史潮流浩浩蕩蕩,如行走中的車輛,不可逆轉。中國的發展亦是如此,没有人可以阻擋。陣痛難免,但同时也提供了一個休養生息的机会,使未来的發展更加穩健、深入和持久。
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52.
引刀一快 |
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2014-08-19 07:43 |
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53.
Oscar Lam |
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2014-08-19 09:04 |
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呢個网嘅評论已成劣幣驅逐良幣,好似誠哥話,「有能力嘅唔出聲,冇能力嘅爭住講」,可惜!根据往積已經输到離晒罩啲冇料之人仲可以咁惡不停吠,乜野世界?
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https://www.youtube.com/embed/40ntEt0Tqis?html5=1
嘉實,劉夢熊,都睇唔過眼,老TOM又點解釋
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回引刀兄,
TO肥婆四兄 勝敗乃兵家常事,不過,後市如何未知喔。 當然未知喇,大家耐心等年結。
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58.
引刀一快 |
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2014-08-19 21:59 |
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