睇好中國唔会似日本一沉不起

Oscar 兄，

指教唔敢當， 不過大家可以讨论吓：

1. "10年債息在2-3厘上、下浮動，是否意味著美國將長期保持低息?"

長債與聯邦基金利率没有直接关係， 所以不会對FED fund rate 有任何啟示。 個人認为現在維持在2～3厘， 只是對之前從1.3% 升至 3% 的中期調整， 長達30債息下跌大周期， 在前年应已經完結。

2. "10年債息和(美國)按揭利息有何关係？”

请注意是美國而不是香港按揭利息。 要解釋会好長， 所以我懶惰在网上抄了一段， 希望是唔好介意。

The traditional, residential 30-year mortgage is VERY similar to a bond investment. There is a long-term investment horizon, with fixed cash payments over the term of the note. But the principal is returned incrementally during the life of the loan.

So, since mortgages are ‘more risky’ than the 10-year treasury bond, they will carry a certain premium that is tied to how much more risky an individual is as a borrower than the US government.

And here it is… no one actually directly changes the interest rate on 10-year treasuries. Not even the Fed. The Fed sets a price constraint that it will sell bonds at during its periodic auctions. Buyers bid for those, and the resulting prices imply the yield rate. If the yield rate for current 10-year bonds increases, then banks take it as a sign that everyone in the investment community sees some sign of increased risk in the future. This might be from inflation. This might be from uncertain economic performance. But whatever it is, they operate with some rule of thumb that their 30-year mortgage rate for excellent credit borrowers will be the 10-year plus 1.5% or something. And they publish their rates.

長達30“年”債息下跌大周期

試想想， 如果十年債息真的與美息有关， 債息從1.3%升了超過一倍， 又怎可能一點都没有影響美息呢？ 對嗎？ 所以， 以十年債息回軟， 引申到港息不会升是一個不合理的假設。

感謝你的詳細解釋。個人認同美國明年中加息的机会較大。

P-1或P加1就夠死啦!

咪甘老定呀!

中國政府做事，確實很難預计。不過總體而言，我對於中國的經濟發展還是很有信心的。

當然未知喇，大家耐心等年結。

咪睇我係少数派，我信心好大架。