地产论坛
登入名称
密码
页数:
41. 蜕变中嘅懒人
2014-05-30 04:38

回大宝二宝兄

懒人谂,其实呢场戏有三个主角,欲正确估中内情,必须要以马后炮法则全面分析晒至有机,懒人试以剧本性格分析,三个主角及道具系:

主角:1. 正苦波叔  2. 众发展商 3. 迅鹅黄生  ---- 道具:A.科进路地皮 B.科研路地皮

1. 正苦波叔:将白石角改为住宅用地后,由於唔多了解地产界人脉内情,以为3. 迅鹅黄生必然托市,当港铁第二次流标即黑面指责,岂料打开A标书内,原本以为衰极都岀(估)5500嘅3. 迅鹅黄生支标竞然几乎位列榜尾,最高嗰支都系(估)3800,即茫茫然宣布流标,结果已知俾人炳完又炳,到呢次打开B标书睇重大镬,最勇嘅英军只得3300,真系一蟹不如一蟹,最令1. 正苦波叔死心嘅系3. 迅鹅黄生(估)竟然包尾,於是把心一横豁岀去----成交!

2. 众发展商:正如亮剑兄已经讲咗白石角地皮已今非昔比,唔值钱,谂住3. 迅鹅黄生支标多数会强劲,赢咗蚀硬,於是乎喺A标书位位搏懵价,唔得就算,结果流标。到B岀台,2. 众发展商谂住正苦唔肯平卖,无乜人再有兴趣落标,於是喺少猫三四只嘅情况下俾英军3300冷手执个热煎堆,笑到见牙唔见眼令市场哗然!

3. 迅鹅黄生:大量蟹货未回笼,无银用都要扮劲落标,如果唔咁做2. 众发展商博懵成功,自己必成仁,但系落重标中咗重大镬,好彩系暗标,於是鬼鬼祟祟落个鸡碎价,希望有傻佬陪死或者自已中标就可以沟淡,结果A流标,3. 迅鹅黄生舒服晒,到咗B杀到就重施故技,结果..............!

以上系懒人以马后炮法则,对呢单戏剧性事件嘅全面分析,结果系一定中嘅,因为系事实,但系情节就系靠估,如果各位网友认为中咗,就可以据此再谂吓重有嗰5幅地嘅下场,如果唔认同,又可以发表意见,吹吓水与网友同乐。


42. 蜕变中嘅懒人
2014-05-30 04:43

呜孚哀哉一代好友,身经百战,不敌一介文人,中伏领野,果其:

猎犬终归山上丧,将军难免阵中亡。

43. 大宝二宝
2014-05-30 07:46
回41 懒兄

懒兄所言虽不中, 不远矣。

正苦今次露左底, 标价低一样有机会批出, 黎紧如果吾系劲靓地,发展商落标价会系偷鸡价,可见黎紧呢D惊吓价将久吾久会出现。

共勉之, 哈哈!
44. 揽住只狗
2014-05-30 08:33

楼下醉猫陈饮饱红酒醉醺醺揽住只狗瞌可以买到平楼咪???

45. Buy
2014-05-30 11:01
Feel pity for the owners of 2 properties I bought in 2009. One owner sold his to move and live with
his parents. The other persuaded by the agent and sold his investment property, but regretted
in final settlement (though he had made a decent profit). I bought these properties for long term investment because I could afford so. Thanks Dr. for the strategy and reinforcing my belief.

46. nobody
2014-05-30 12:20
如果大陆降准,但投资环境又唔改善(国进民退),但香港又有BSD,咁钱会去边?
其实欧洲都可能又会放水。

香港文汇网援引《人民日报》海外版报导,经济增速减缓,房地产价格出现下跌,实体经济融资难,地方债务风险,产能过剩,外贸疲软……当前中国经济有很多问题亟须解决。民生证券的报告描述称,中国经济正处於增长速度换挡期、结构调整阵痛期和前期政策消化期三期叠加的关键时期,经济从高速增长向中高速增长换挡已是必然。从供给端来看,人口红利衰退,储蓄率出现拐点,潜在增速下滑,劳动力比较优势丧失。从需求端来看,内部人口结构拐点导致房地产引擎失速,外部全球化红利衰退,全球经济从失衡到再平衡,导致外需和外资引擎失速。

在很多人看来,经济乏力时,需要较为宽松的货币政策进行刺激,降低存款准备金率是大概率事件。摩根大通中国经济学家朱海斌预计2014年将会出现两轮存款准备金率下调,各为50个基点,一次是在第3季,另一次是在第4季。

47. 小阳
2014-05-30 12:59

hi Nobody bro ,

The  QE money fom europe  may go to Dim sum bond market. I read an article  saying that 79 billion euro go to dim sum bond issued by china banks in this 5 months .

the RMB depreciation actually help those yield lovers go to the cnh bond market.

For those who have bought cnh bonds already , they bought higher yield cnh bond than before in order to cover the depreciation loss .

 

48. 小阳
2014-05-30 13:18

to Alan Pepper Bro ,

You are just like english version of " treasure hong kong " bro .


I do agree that the 2008 crisis has changed the rules of investment market.  All govts in worldwide  are afraid of " too big to fail" crisis.  You see in  CHINA now , the china govt let the 2nd tier cities to have " 限降令" . This rule is actually unfair for those who have no house and wait for the property crisis .

 

All govt in worldwide don't want to see  1997-2003 HK property crisis  again . HK govt did very few things to save the property market  in HK .  However, this is the reason HK property market is more healthier coz it experienced the " kill the weak and stong left " prcoess .

ANYWAY,  I can see the trend that govt will save the financial market when the crisis come. This only blocks the wealth redistribution . The richer get richer , the poorer still very poor.

THEREFORE MARKET just penalize the patient tenants  instead of rich ppl.

 

 

49. 小阳
2014-05-30 13:26

Hi Nobody bro ,

the RRR reduction  is helping the property market and in china. The govt notice something boiled for long long time.

50. 自我陶醉
2014-05-30 14:48
To 48/F 小阳

你相信市场有无形之手吗? 在经济学上, 这些限价令都不会成功的。 相反, 它只会令负债高的发展商加速灭亡, 到时国内楼价和经济只会受更大打击, 最后, 最有耐性的投资者才是真正赢家。

51. 小阳
2014-05-30 14:59
自醉兄,
你返来啦!welcome on board .

你又去左边?
52. 自我陶醉
2014-05-30 15:11
小阳, 多谢关心, 去咗旅行呀, 刚回来两天。
53. 顺民
2014-05-30 17:21

Oh, surprise ! Is Alan Pepper and 珍惜香港兄 are the same one ? or just they are using the very same words as each other ? then we mistook them are the same one  ?

 

54. 小阳
2014-05-30 17:26
No , I think they are not the same one . 

But similar approach to talk about life . 
55. 顺民
2014-05-30 22:39
Yes , sure , They have had each different personal style , but both of them are excellent .
56. 小阳
2014-05-30 22:46
自醉兄,
我当然相信无形之手,我都知越禁爆,但是最惊半死不生,中国好学唔学,学美国救市,但学D唔学D,美国都话有bear sterns 和雷曼爆煲,大陆唔敢俾佢地爆,因为晤知爆左点救,楼市爆更惊,政权不保,所以大陆谂桥,落降令、减rrr丶点心债丶等等。

所以我估可能中国楼市限价化,A股化,半死不生,zombie 市。

我觉得对patient tenant 不公平咖!
因为佢地等那么久,谂住爆煲执平货,点知杀出中央驶横手死托,结果唔上唔落卡住左罗!

那么他们等不等?等到几时?
 
57. 小阳
2014-05-30 23:21
还有 stress test --退休高官Geithner 话佢想救雷曼,不过有官唔制,因为d官话用public money 救金融大鰐,惊影响选举,你知啦!平民90% ,有$人10%。所以唔救雷曼先有金融风暴。

但是大睦一党专政,佢一定会救.
58. 小阳
2014-05-30 23:26
政权稳定好紧要!!!
59. nobody
2014-05-31 00:23
2009-10年美国其中一个救市方案系建立所谓"坏银行"去收赚不良资产,其实都系参考大陆四大行上市前既做法,但佢地最后认为佢地冇可能做到中共透明度咁低先放弃。
今日又出消息要"加大「定向降准」力度",其实又系比钱益自己友,以大陆人既性格,可能又系诈诈帝帝出去买野,因为国太基建己经太多,又咁多打贪,出去买野先最有水脚,如果系咁,就可能出现日本90后放松银根但钱冇留系本土反而出左去炒起成个东南亚,再加上大陆突然人仔一次眨值就令东南亚爆煲,但呢次我估又唔会好似上次一样,今次钱会去两极既市场,一系DM,一系就非洲呢D前沿市场(Frontier market)。咁又会唔会煲呢?照计短期内又唔会,因为DM食得起呢D资金,而FM同亚洲比个基数又太细,打劫都打唔到几多。

60. 珍惜香港
2014-05-31 01:17
珍惜香港

TO:55/F 顺民

Obviously, I am not Alan, and Alan is not me. He is a positive guy, though I rarely have chance to discuss with him. A recent topic was about competitiveness.

Here, 亮剑, 法子 and PP are really excellent. I am just "blowing water" from time to time!

TO:56/F 小阳

Sorry on using English. I am not in good state tonight with long Chinese typing.

I guess you were just being ironic to describe the situation of patient tenants as unfair. The world is never fair to anyone, but we can't say it unfair if the expectations of those black-hearts were no longer realized.

Waiting for a disaster, and hoping a disaster to come, are actually the same. When someone waits for a disaster in order to take advantage from it, he won't feel happy if it didn't come. This is obviously a negative thinking, a black-heart. As time flies, his wish for a disaster becomes stronger and stronger, and he becomes more and more negative.

Negative people won't have a positve future. This is simply a matter of karma.

That's why I always say, don't be a black-heart. We should be glad to see the Chinese government being able to successfully resolve a crisis, and stay away from disasters. As said, the World is moving forward, China is moving forward, and Hong Kong is moving forward as well. There is no turning back. That's why we shouldn't keep a 20-years old mindset to foresee what would happen 30 years from now.

The only way for a negative guy to save himself, is to turn positive, which is a painful process. He has to face the fact, and accept the loss from being negative, through which he would learn to value what he has today, and never go negative again.

I am delighted to see a trend of positive movements in this lovely home place.
页数:
我要回应
我的称呼
回应 / 意见
验证文字
 
回应 / 留言规则
  1. 禁止撰写粗言秽语、诽谤、渲染色情暴力或人身攻击的言论;
  2. 禁止以名称/昵称/绰号/同音字等批评或映射任何人士、机构、公司;
  3. 禁止发布有关招聘、推销、广告等内容;
  4. 禁止公开任何个人资料(如电话号码、电邮地址、即时通讯帐号等)。

敬请留言者自律。本网站保留删除/堵截任何留言的权利。

声 明

所有议题/文章由其作者提供,大部份回应/留言是即时上载,少部份未注册为会员的回应/留言会经我们的系统过滤,所有议题/文章/回应/ 留言/资讯及评论并不代表地产资讯网(Property.hk)立场和观点。由於本【地产论坛】受到「即时上载留言」运作方式所规限,故不能完全监察 所有留言,若读者及用户发现有留言出现问题,欢迎以留言或电邮方式与我们联络(admin@property.hk),我们有权删除/堵截任何留言 (删除/堵截留言前不会作事先警告及通知), 如有任何争议,本网站管理员拥有最终的诠释权 。