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新盘热卖之天时,地利,人和
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新盘热卖之天时,地利,人和

 

汤文亮博士

纪惠集团行政总裁
2014年5月25日

  荃湾环宇海湾在开售前,已经传出开价比同区二手楼还要平,吓到那些有心买同区二手楼的人仕立刻缩沙,小业主亦不甘心大幅减价,最后做成荃湾区楼市冰封现象,大家都非常关注环宇开价,本来冰封属於自然现象,亦即是三国经常提及之天时,但长实等今次卖环宇海湾时令同区楼市冰封属人为,亦兵行险著,若果销情不理想,不但对环宇海湾未来销售有一定程度影响,什至对整个香港楼市有影响,如今,三百多单位有接近二千认购,可以说大局已定,不但环宇可以卖一个满堂红,并且可以刺激起沈睡购买力,各地产商亦枕戈待发,新楼盘将会百花齐放,有心置业或者换楼的人仕的一个难得机会,我并不是替地产商卖广告,以事论事而已。

  环宇的地利又并不是其它楼盘可以做到,主要因为荃湾区已经多年来没有大型新楼盘,单是荃湾区所积聚购买力在没有竞争对手的情况下,估计可以轻移易举买起环宇今年的八百个单位,如果有一半买楼的人释放他们的一房或者两房单位,对舒缓上车盘短缺亦有一定作用,今次政府轻微修订DSD可以说是功德无量,亦印证各项印花税一定会有一些修订空间,政府过往的独断独行,不听取业界声音,不接受任何意见的做法是值得商确。

  大型楼盘环宇在万衆期待之下登场,这当然是人和,在三国时诸葛亮对刘备说:将军可占人和。就是这句话,害到刘备带着一班难民东奔西跑,其实,诸葛亮是错,太平盛世,人和尚可和天时,地利鼎足而立,但是在战乱时期,人民就是负累。现在香港当然是处於太平盛世,但物业市场就并不是,在各项辣招影响下,楼宇成交量跌至新低点,做物业代理生意的人苦不堪言,越大越多职员的物业代理行就越惨,要继续生存,唯有削减人手,不过,有新盘开售,物业代理是否够多人又是非常重要,人和,很多时是成与败的关键所在。

  而今次环宇海湾能够成功,就是为那些受辣招影响的置业人仕,尤其是那些换楼的人度身订做,首期不高,又有三年低息二按过渡期,令那些利用新DSD的换楼人仕有较长换楼期,而那些初次置业者亦可以利用低息二按置业,有这些优点,环宇卖一个满堂红又有什么出奇,我相信其他地产商亦会争相效法,各出奇谋推销他们的新楼盘,有心置业的人将会有很多选择,各位小业主不应在这风头火势之下与各大地产商逐鹿,倒不如叠埋心绪,去吓游埠好过。

新盘热卖之天时,地利,人和
1. 睇得通
2014-05-25 09:12

我一直认同的买楼座右铭:

中环在线:
几时买楼好?影帝KO李嘉诚
「买得起就系时机」

新片《失恋急让》嘅预告片近日喺网上热播,主角张家辉扮地产代理卖广告,入型入格,金句百出,最爆系最尾段佢讲嗰句:「几时系买楼时机?你买得起嘅时候,就系买楼时机。」确实精准过「超人」李嘉诚成日都讲嗰句:「买来自住,几时都可以买」。

代理口头禅―「尽做」

美联物业住宅部行政总裁布少明承认,自己当年试过用呢句sell客,佢会话「你有能力就买啦,点知第日会唔会升到买唔起㗎!」不过唔系人人受落,「上车客,易sell,但投资者、换楼客喇喎,佢哋有经验,有主见,比较难sell啲。」佢好老实咁讲,客人唔会因为地产代理一句说话而「著灯」,如果真系咁易做,就个个做到top sales,代理仲有好多功夫要做,包括为客人分析后市。
另一位睇过条片嘅利嘉阁总裁廖伟强都大赞,张家辉呢句好精警,好多人成日问佢几时可以买楼,佢话「好老实,边个专家预计到楼市几时升几时跌呢?所谓能知三日事,富贵千万年。」
阿廖又话,张家辉成日讲「尽做」两字,真系好到题,「客人无论有乜要求,我哋都唔会say no,亦唔讲一定得,因为有承诺,到时唔得咁点算,所以尽做呢两个字,几好用。」
对於张家辉话「市场上最钟意急起上来,乜得肯制嘅业主」,阿廖就话冇咁夸张,不过急起上来嘅业主,临尾可能真系有令人意想不到嘅减价,试过有业主临场即减5%。
照咁讲,以后大家想问人几时买楼好,睇睇自己个银行户口咪得罗。

李华华

2. 睇得通
2014-05-25 09:18

什至对整个香港楼市有影响,如今,三百多单位有接近二千认购,可以说大局已定,.........

甚至有基会说:............不但环宇可以卖一个满堂红,并且可以刺激起沈睡购买力,

3. 用家反而应该把握现时低息入市的机会。
2014-05-25 09:49

楼市风云:加息难阻用家入市

股市变幻,楼市莫测。楼市又在一致睇淡的情况下,突然回暖,多个屋苑出现抢盘情况,楼市早前出现的短时间闪跌,立即吸引用家入市,似乎已测试出楼市的底部,未来季度的楼市,价量都有机出现回升。
自去年初港府实施的楼市辣招,一直被认为是推倒楼市的最后一根禾草,楼评不断唱淡楼市,经济学家又说楼市将崩盘,最后证券大行都加入唱淡行列,去年年初有评论就说年底楼价跌一成。最后政府公布的数字是楼价零跌幅,一年过后,看淡的评论又继续看淡,再说今年楼价年底前跌一成。

利益团体楼评不可靠

一般而言,利益团体的楼评最不可靠,主因是有关言论的目的,其实只想业主减价以增加楼市成交量。至於经济学家的评论,通常又过於理论化,说甚么负担比已过高,最终会促使楼价下跌五成,年前就有一位名家表示,现时楼价太高了,已沽出手头上所有物业。倘真的这样做,后悔的机会很大。
事实上,楼市辣招已压低了太进取的叫价,这变相已补贴了双重印花税的成本,因此用家已可考虑了。美国联储局有机明年加息,所以用家更加要把握这个加息前可以低息入市的机会。现时实际供款利率约2厘,由此作起点计,三、五年内难以加至5厘以上,既然如此,加息何足惧。

何熊辉
楼评人

4. 买得起就系好时机
2014-05-25 11:51

本人在2009年购入二个住宅, 2012年购入三个住宅, 出於对财爷的楼市恐惧症的反对!!!

原来就是「买得起就系好时机」???

5. Great Britain
2014-05-25 14:07


  An EU/EEA citizen who is an employee, self employed person, student or who has sufficient funds to support himself or herself has a right to reside in Sweden. The term right to reside means that an EU/EEA citizen and his or her family members are permitted to stay in Sweden without a residence permit. A person who has a right of residence need however to register with the Migration Board no later than three months after entering the country.

  If you are lokking for job and are register at the national job agency (www.ams.se) you are, as an EU-citizen, allowed to stay up to 6 months to look for work.

  The Public Contact Section
  The Swedish Migration Board

  这场改变的源头,就在2009年尾欧盟所签署的里斯本条约,条约列明拥有成员国nationality的人士,会拥有一种全新创造,和本国公民权无关的权利--欧洲公民权;因此即使BNO人士没有「居英权」,亦可因为条约的签订,突然拥有全新的「居欧权」--由於英国属於欧洲的一部份,BNO持有人因为「居欧权」,而间接得到了「居英权」。

  条约内文公开之后,已经有多位留意欧洲新闻,或研究欧盟法律条文的朋友,对此提出了质疑,因为条约极度细密,甚至为英国保留了「辖免部份地区」的空间;可是在那份Article 299的详细「辖免地区」之中,却找不到香港,最初大家都以为,这是写漏了;可是以法律严谨见称的英国,难道真的会犯上一个这样愚蠢的错误吗?

  随著越来越多的真人测试,在欧洲持BNO的待遇与以前完全不同:以往持BNO入境英国要填Landing card,排非EU队伍;二月一日起入境英国排「非欧盟」队,会被有关人员赶走,叫你去排EU队,甚至当面把你已经填写好的Landing card撕毁,不再在BNO上盖章等等,这些希奇古怪的现象,早在几个前已开始在欧洲发生;先是奥地利突然在航空公司的资料页之中,把BNO的入境居留条件改和BC相同,再在欧洲各地发生大量的免盖印,要求入境排欧盟队的事件,种种现象都令人怀疑,这些事件背后只是反映著政策的改变,而不是单纯的错误。

  英国人为何「大发善心」?要知道政策的改变,其实和当地的政治有直接的关系;英国在战后有大量殖民地及前殖民地的居民涌入,最初是极欢迎的,因为殖民地军团在两次大战都为英国作出了大量的贡献;然而六十年代起,经济环境衰退及失业率,令英政府改变国藉权利,以图减少人口增长。由於香港谈判期间,英国长期由最保守的保守党势力领导,莫讲说给香港人移民,单是和欧洲增加整合,都被这些「疑欧派」大力的反对;一条英法隧道,谈了百多年都因为「疑欧」、「恐欧」的军事经济原因,遭到全力的反对而失败告终;到九十年代终於通车了,可知道这条「隧道」,居然只行铁路--汽车不准行走,要由火车运送过隧道!这样的infrastructure,令到英国和欧洲的整合遇到极大的阻力!由瑞典开车经波罗的海去丹麦,再经过几条桥去德国,全程都直行无阻;反之单是英国去法国才三十七点几公里的隧道(只计海底部份),车辆居然也只能由火车运送,这样的保守主义,简直岂有此理!相约长度的港珠澳大桥,如果用这样的方式运作,保证蚀大本。
6. 毛懋
2014-05-25 17:59
毛泽东谈话和写文章时喜欢“打比方”,他的许多比喻信手拈来妙趣横生,令人叹为观止。现列举其中极为经典的15个例子,让我们共同领略一下一代伟人的炉火纯青的比喻艺术。 

一:1921年12月,毛泽东和弟弟毛泽民第二次到安源煤矿。在专为工人子弟办的一所日校里,毛泽东在黑板上写上一个“工”字,解释说,上边的一横线是“天”,下边一条是“地”,中间的竖线代表工人阶级自己,工人是站在地上,顶天立地,整个世界都是工人们的。在这期间,毛泽东还在给湖南长沙人力车夫上的夜校课堂上,运用了“打比方”。他在黑板上先写一个“工”,再在旁边写一个“人”,这两字的合义就是“工人”。然后再写一个“天”。他微笑着告诉车夫如何把“人”字放在“工”的下边构成“天”字。他进一步解释说,如果工人团结起来力量可以顶天。 

二、1926年5月至9月,毛泽东担任第六届广州农民运动讲习所所长期间,在为学员讲授他写的《中国社会各阶级的分析》文章中,他把阶级压迫形象地比作一座多层的宝塔。他边讲边在黑板上画了一座宝塔,然后指着宝塔说:你们看,最下层是塔基,有工人、农民,还有小资产阶级,人数最多,受压迫和剥削最深,生活最苦;压在他们上面的一层,是地主阶级、买办阶级,人数不多;再上一层是贪官污吏、土豪劣绅,人数更少;更高一层是军阀;塔顶是帝国主义。他接着说:剥削阶级虽然很凶,但人数很少。只要大家齐心,团结紧,劳苦大众起来斗争,压在工农身上的几重大山就可推翻。百姓齐,泰山移,何愁塔之不倒乎! 

三、井冈山时期,毛泽东非常重视根据地建设。他形象地比喻说:“革命要有根据地,好像人要有屁股。人假若没有屁股,便不能坐下来。要是老走着、老站着,定然不会持久。腿走酸了、站软了,就会倒下去。革命有了根据地,才能够有地方休整,恢复气力,补充力量,再继续战斗,扩大发展,走向最后胜利。”毛泽东的一番话,澄清了部分同志的错误思想,提高了大家对建立革命根据地的认识。 

四、1930年1月,毛泽东写了《星星之火,可以燎原》一文,结尾在展望快要到来的革命高潮时是这样写的:“它是站在海岸遥望海中已经看得见桅杆尖头的一只航船,它是立于高山之巅远看东方已见光芒四射喷薄欲出的一轮朝日,它是躁动于母腹中的快要成熟了的一个婴儿。”这样的语言尽管极富诗情画意,却一点不朦胧,因为那些意象全来自百姓的生活,人民大众一听就懂。 

五、毛泽东1930年的著作《反对本本主义》在谈到“调查就是解决问题”这个论点时,运用了一个十分生动形象的比喻:调查就像“十月怀胎”,解决问题就像“一朝分娩”。 

六、西安事变和平解决后,许多同志一时不理解。毛泽东在为抗大学员讲课中,用建立民族统一战线的重要意义教育大家,讲了一个“毛驴上山”的比喻。他说:陕北毛驴很多,让毛驴上山有三个办法,一拉、二推、三打。蒋介石是不愿意抗战的,我们就采取对付毛驴的办法,拉他、推他,再不干就打他。西安事变就是这样。我们党领导全国人民抗战是矛盾的主要方面,起决定作用的是我们,国共合作是大势所趋。但是,驴子会踢人的,我们又要提防它,这就又要联合又要斗争。刘继兴认为,毛泽东的讲课发人深思,一方面使干部、学员对矛盾的主要方面有了深刻的理解;另一方面又结合国内政治斗争形势,解决了大家的思想问题,大大激发了抗战的热情。 

七、毛主席在延安文艺座谈会讲到必须继承中外一切优秀文化的时候,曾妙喻说:“屁股坐在中国的现在,一手伸向古代,一手伸向外国。” 

八、1944年10月25日,毛泽东在延安中央党校大礼堂,向参加第一期党校培训班的营以上干部作重要讲话。他说:同志们这次出去,要能够团结广大党外群众。一个共产党员,要像柳树一样,插到哪里就在那里活起来。但是柳树也有弱点,就是随风倒,软得很,所以还要学松树。松树的劲大得很,到冬天也不落叶子。松树有原则性,柳树有灵活性。斯大林说过,共产党员是特殊材料制成的。什么是特殊材料呢?就是松树和柳树结合起来,像柳树那样可亲,人人喜欢;像松树那样坚定,稳当可靠。这样人民群众就会成群结队地围绕在我们身边。毛泽东的讲话内容丰富,生动具体,不时被一阵阵热烈的掌声所打断。 

九、毛泽东1945年8月13日在《抗日战争胜利后的时局和我们的方针》中说:人民靠我们去组织,中国的反动分子,靠我们组织起人民去把他打倒。凡是反动的东西,你不打,他就不倒。这也和扫地一样,扫帚不到,灰尘照例不会自己跑掉。人民靠我们去组织。中国的反动分子,靠我们组织起人民去反他打倒。凡是反动的东西,你不打,他就不倒。这也和扫地一样,扫帚不到,灰尘照例不会自己跑掉。 

十、重庆谈判时期,毛泽东曾在秘书王炳南的陪同下,登门拜访陈立夫。寒暄后,毛泽东又忆起第一次国共合作的往事,说那是国共两党的“一段蜜月期。”陈立夫说,那段时期正在美国读书。毛泽东接着批评国民党的剿共政策,说:“所谓‘石头过刀,茅草过火’,厉害得很啦!”陈立夫则表示,这都是过去的事,无须再提。毛泽东继续说:“我们上山打游击,是国民党剿共逼出来的,是逼上梁山。就像孙悟空大闹天宫,玉皇大帝封他为弼马温,孙悟空不服气,自己鉴定是齐天大圣。可是,你们却连弼马温也不给我们做,我们只好扛枪上山了。”陈立夫表示,国民党在过去有许多要检讨的地方,这次国共和谈,愿意“尽心效力。” 

十一、还是在重庆谈判时期,毛泽东应《大公报》邀请,和周恩来等来报社作客。席间,大公报社负责人重提所谓共产党“不要另起炉灶。”毛泽东回答说:“如果蒋委员长是大锅饭让大家吃,共产党决不另起炉灶。如果他不给大家吃大锅饭,饿了两天还可以,饿到第三天,非另起炉灶不行。” 

十二、在《论联合政府》的政治报告中,毛泽东针对即将取得抗日的全面胜利,而党内还存在各种非无产阶级思想和不良作风,用了打扫房子和洗脸两个日常生活例子作比喻,他说:“房子是应该经常打扫的,不打扫就会积满了灰尘;脸是应该经常洗的,不洗也就会灰尘满面。我们同志的思想,我们党的工作,也会沾染灰尘的,也应该打扫和洗涤。”他用“房子”和“脸”来比喻我们同志的思想,我们党的工作,用“灰尘”来比喻各种非无产阶级思想和不良作风,用“打扫和洗涤”来比喻开展批评和自我批评,这样说理既透彻深刻,又浅显生动。 

十三、1951年3月,毛泽东主席在中南海勤政殿与文朋相聚。当他看到新闻署署长胡乔木与出版署署长胡愈之在谈笑时,便雅兴顿生,遂作一联。联曰:“新闻胡,出版胡,‘二胡’拉拉唱唱。”请众人续对。在座的专家、学者们无不为毛主席的趣味比喻和精巧构思所折服,纷纷苦思冥想,却无人能对,一时传为佳话。 

十四、毛泽东1955年9月在中共七届六中全会扩大会议上作总结发言,其中说到:“什么叫左倾?什么叫右倾?好像妇女生娃娃,七个月就压出来,就是左了。过了九个月不准出来,就是右了。” 

十五、1964年6月6日在第三个五年计划的指示“基础工业”在中国国家发展中的地位时,毛泽东用“身体”作妙喻:“两个拳头,一个屁股。农业是一个拳头,国防是一个拳头。要使拳头有劲,屁股就要坐稳。屁股就是基础工业。” 
7. 蜕变中嘅懒人
2014-05-25 18:22

环宇卖一个满堂红又有什么出奇,我相信其他地产商亦会争相效法,各出奇谋推销他们的新楼盘,有心置业的人将会有很多选择,各位小业主不应在这风头火势之下与各大地产商逐鹿,倒不如叠埋心绪,去吓游埠好过。

汤博士今日为文以天时、地利、人和剖析鲩鱼海湾,预期呢个盘必卖个满堂红,但系睇到最尾段近似结论嘅忠告,懒人隐隐觉得博士言犹未尽,唔知点解唔讲埋。

8. 最富裕的当权派
2014-05-25 18:25

毛泽东和邓小平都想不到???

三个代表的江泽民成为最富裕的当权派???

现在还有什么好说呢???

9. 刺激起沉睡购买力
2014-05-25 18:37

什至对整个香港楼市有影响,如今,三百多单位有接近二千认购,可以说大局已定,不但环宇可以卖一个满堂红,并且可以刺激起沈睡购买力,........

甚至对整个香港楼市有影响,如今,三百多单位有接近二千认购,可以说大局已定,不但环宇可以卖一个满堂红,并且可以刺激起沉睡购买力,

10. 法子
2014-05-25 18:41
11. TOAD
2014-05-25 18:49

朱镕基候选市长演讲,说啥话被江泽民指正?

《朱镕基上海讲话实录》已公开发行。《讲话》收入了朱镕基在上海工作、主政期间的重要讲话、谈话、信件等。透过对《讲话》内容的介绍,让我们从中看到经济改革关键时期,上海在改革方面的顶层设计与措施,同时,也看到朱镕基的主政风格与胆略。

朱镕基敢讲真话、实话,直面问题的务实作风,尤其受到民众的称赞。朱镕基务实作风,对于各级官员而言,也是一面镜子,对照这面镜子,可识大体知不足,从而激发干好工作的热情。

在我看来,朱镕基敢于敞开心扉,对于自己的缺点毫不掩饰,坦坦荡荡做人,同样难能可贵。这方面,我们可以从朱镕基候选上海市长演讲中窥见一斑。比如他如实“交代”自己的经历,说自己是一个孤儿,没有见过父亲,也没有自己的兄弟姐妹,“所以我讲什么话都没有顾忌,只要是认为有利于党的事情我就要讲,即使错误地处理了我,我也不计较。党的十一届三中全会前夕恢复了我的政治生命,同时也可以说是焕发了我的政治青春,我始终相信我会得到我们党的正确对待。我就是有这么一个特点,或者说我是力求这么做的。”从中看出朱镕基对事业的忠贞和直率细腻的情感。

对于“自我评价”,朱镕基更是坦言作为上海市长我不是最佳人选,有很多缺点。谈到自己的缺点,朱镕基说,他不是从农村基层上来的,对人民的疾苦了解的不多,这是我最大的弱点。

事实上,朱镕基在上海工作与主政期间就经常深入基层,了解民众生活状况,他提出抓好“菜篮子”保障群众生活,并亲自抓这项为民工程,看得出朱镕基执政为民的胸襟。

朱镕基从民生入手,干实事,这样的务实作风,在当下也很有现实意义。对各级官员参与党的群众路线教育和实践活动也有借鉴意义。

谈到自己的缺点,朱镕基更是直言,我性情很急躁,缺乏领导者的涵养,干工作急于求成,对下面干部要求过急、批评过严。这一点我应该向江泽民同志好好学习。朱镕基这样谈自己的缺点,却被在场的江泽民同志当场插话指正。江泽民同志说,我们都差不多,这样做“没有坏心”,我们都要严格些。江泽民的插话说完,在场的与会者报以热烈的掌声。这掌声同样也是对朱镕基工作的肯定。

江泽民同志对朱镕基缺点的“指正”,也很值得回味。我们说,一个干部做到讲真话、讲实话,敢于开展批评与自我批评,同样要有无私的胸襟。当今一种不好的现象就是,官员被批评往往认为,这是某个人和自己过不去,没安好心,正是由于这种心理作怪,官员相互吹捧、阿姨奉承的官场怪相也就出现了。而消除这种官场怪相,关键是干部对待批评与自我批评要具有“没有坏心”的心态,而这种“没有坏心”的心态,是建立在立党为公,执政为民的基础之上。没有这种基础,也就谈不上“没有坏心”。在这方面,各级官员不妨回味一下朱镕基候选上海市长演讲,谈缺点被江泽民“指正”的情景,从中受到启迪。


12. Shame
2014-05-25 19:15
Racial Prejudice in French and British Immigration Policy 


FRANCE AND BRITAIN TODAY ARE SHADOWS OF THE GREAT COLONIAL EMPIRES they once dominated, yet the consequences of their imperial acquisitions continue to linger as both countries seek to moderate the immigration of persons from countries once part of vast imperial collections.  In general, there is little public concern when an immigrant hails from Canada or Australia or another ‘white’ dominion.  It’s a different reaction, however, when it’s a low-skilled black immigrant from Algeria or the Caribbean.  This ‘reaction’ by both the general public and policy-makers results in immigration legislation that unduly discriminates on the basis of race, ethnicity, and national origin. 

It is recognized that countries cannot have full open-door immigration policies as the effects on national well-being would be staggering.  There is, however, a great deal of latitude for countries to shape policies that provide equal-opportunity for migrants without regard for race, ethnicity, or national origin, or, on the contrary, to enact legislation that discriminates on the basis of these attributes.  In the case of Britain and France during the past 40 years, immigration policies have drifted from the latter to the former, without fully characterizing either of these two extremes. 

During the latter half of the twentieth century, strong anti-black and anti-minority sentiment has been veiled in the form of anti-immigration stances by leading political parties in both France and Britain.  These positions were regulated in both countries by public sentiment, party power, and the economic well-being of the country.  In the case of France, however, the emergence of the prominent French nationalist party National Front (FN) pulled the leading right-of-centre parties further to the right, resulting in the adoption of discriminatory immigration policy by the conservative French government in 1993; a similar nationalist movement in Britain did not have the same impact.  Still, in both instances immigration policy is much more discriminatory at the close of the millennium than it was just forty years earlier. 

IN THE EARLY POST-WAR ERA, most of the immigration to Britain was from other European countries, including many Irish and Polish, according to John Solomos, author of Race & Racism in Britain (Solomos 53-54).  Yet a significant change in British immigration policy would come in 1948 with the institution of the British Nationality Act, distinguishing between citizens of the United Kingdom and Colonies and citizens of independent Commonwealth states, yet conferring citizens of both with the right to enter, work, and settle in Britain without restriction.  It did not much alter the practical status of citizens of independent Commonwealth states, who had been considered full citizens of Great Britain with ‘free movement’ and ‘the protection of the crown’ since passage of the 1914 Imperial Act, but it would represent one of the first chips off an Imperial Act that would gradually be whittled down to shavings by racist immigration policymaking in London. 

In post-war France, writes Alec G. Hargreaves in his book Immigration, ‘Race’ and Ethnicity in Contemporary France, the national government welcomed--even recruited!-- immigrants to help rebuild the country following years of war and depression (Hargreaves 10).  Like Britain, the majority of immigrants to France were European, hailing from Italy, Belgium, Spain, and Portugal, with limited numbers of Armenian, Russian, and Jewish migrants (9-10).  Quickly, however, the economies of other European states began to improve, and the share of European immigrants to France declined while the portion of Maghreb (Algerian, Moroccan, and Tunisian) immigrants--visible racial minorities--began to climb (12). 

It should be noted that the French perspective of minorities is decidedly differently than the Anglo-American perspective.  According to Hargreaves, the French social relations vocabulary is relatively limited, with the word ‘immigration’ pertaining to a number social concepts related to race and ethnicity (1-2) and the word ‘immigrant’ itself generally describing a low-skilled migrant from the Third-World (18).  The author also states that the French do not recognise individual ethnic groups, but speak of ‘integration’--an implicit ‘presupposition’ that newcomers to French society are to become integrated into the culture (1-2). 

The denial of ethnic minorities by French society is mirrored (if not encouraged) by the French government.  According to Hargreaves, immigration statistics are kept only of first-generation immigrants.  States the author, ‘In the official mind of the state, the formal integration of immigrants and their descendants goes hand-in-hand with their obliteration as a distinct component of French society’ (4). 

Residents of French overseas departments and territories (known by the French acronym DOM-TOM), including Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guyana, and Réunion, were considered French nationals, and held a status in France similar to that held until 1983 by citizens of British colonies.  As French nationals, DOM-TOM migrants to France were never tracked as immigrants. 

According to Hargreaves, the central myths of French identity were forged by a France united until 1789 by a central monarchy, and as a unified nation-state following the Revolution (5).  As nationality became a tool to unite the people of France, divisive cultural differences were shunned. 

Britain, on the other hand, has had a large history of mobilisation around issues of race and ethnicity, with the difference between the British culture and others ethnically distinct as a key aggravating factor.  Therefore, Britain adopted was a ‘liberal’ attitude towards European immigrants following World War II, but perceived a variety of ‘problems’ associated with the arrival of ‘coloured’ workers, regardless of their status as British Commonwealth citizens (Solomos 56).  Race riots at Notting Hill and Nottingham in the late 1950s supported arguments by opponents of black and minority immigration to institute even stricter immigration laws, as ‘too many blacks’ was seen as a growing British predicament (60-61). 

In response to the growing black ‘problem’, Parliament passed the Commonwealth Immigration Act in 1962.  Absolute free movement of Commonwealth passport holders ceased as a work permit was required for entry to Britain ***unless*** the individual was born in Britain or held a British passport.  Solomos quotes one government official, who stated years later that ‘the bill’s real purpose was to restrict the influx of coloured immigrants.  We were reluctant to say as much openly.  So the restrictions were applied to coloured and white citizens in all Commonwealth countries--though everybody recognised that immigrants from Canada, Australia, and New Zealand formed no part of the problem’ (61).  According to Solomos, there was limited opposition to the Act at the time by the media and the opposition Labour Party (61). 

Significantly, Labour would not repeal or amend the Act after defeating the Conservative Party for control of Parliament in 1964.  According to Solomos, Labour nearly converged with the Conservative viewpoint, with Prime Minister Harold Wilson calling for stricter immigration controls and greater ‘integration’ of immigrants (64).  In 1968, the Labour government passed a second Commonwealth Immigration Act, which aimed at reducing the number of East African Asian (Kenyan and Ugandan) immigrants by requiring British and colonial holders of British passports to prove patriality. 

Following the two Commonwealth Immigration Acts, the opponents of immigration were still not appeased.  In 1968, prominent Conservative Enoch Powell called for repatriation of immigrants, as reduced immigration levels, he felt, were not sufficient (67). 

Yet another piece of legislation that restricted immigration to Britain was passed by a Conservative government in 1971.  The Immigration Act required patriality for free admission to Britain, and a work permit subject to annual review in the instance that one did not have patrial ties to Britain (69).  States Solomos, ‘The 1971 Act eventually took away the right of the black Commonwealth immigrants to settle, and thus represented an important step in the institutionalisation of racist immigration controls’ (70).  Indeed, the bedrock guarantee of British citizenship once promised to the citizens of all Commonwealth states had by 1971 eroded into a mere pebble of its former self. 

During the early 1970s, the French enacted minority-restricting immigration policies themselves with the institution of an official ‘Zero-Immigration’ policy in 1974.  According to Hargreaves, it was formally a ‘suspension’ of immigration, but remains in place today (Hargreaves 17).  In practice, the policy eliminated all open-immigration that had formerly been permitted by French law.  A number of holes in the ‘Zero-Immigration’ policy allowed immigration to France to continue, however, as European Community members still had free movement, asylum seekers were still protected, high-skilled workers were exempt, and other workers were permitted as economic need arose.  The bottom line, however, was that France had removed the welcome mat from its front door. 

Paradoxically, the visibility of immigrants in France would increase following the ‘Zero-Immigration’ declaration as families would join previous immigrants (18).  Third-world immigrants, Hargreaves states, would come to be seen as threats to French tradition as it was--and still is--perceived that they integrated into society with greater difficulty (26). 

British immigration policy would again tighten after Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party to victory in the 1979 election.  According to Solomos, Thatcher had stated while campaigning in 1979 that blacks posed a threat to British social and cultural values (Solomos 71), and her government passed the restrictive British Nationality Act in 1981.  Among the provisions of the policy, British citizenship was further sub-divided, with the right of abode in Britain guaranteed only to citizens of the United Kingdom and not to citizens of dependent or overseas colonies, according to the British Information Service Internet site  (‘Background’ Sec. 3).  Stated an official government report for an OECD conference, ‘Firm immigration control is . . . essential in order to provide the conditions necessary for developing and maintaining good community relations’ (Solomos 71).  Writes Solomos, ‘The strategy pursued since 1979 has continued to legitimate the supposed link between firm controls and community relations’ (72). 

During the 1980s, immigrants were increasingly seen as a threat to French national identity.  As a result, the National Front party (known by the French acronym FN) was created to advance the far-right cause of French nationalism.  FN would succeed in winning a small percentage of seats in the French National Assembly, but its most significant impact was in pulling the mainstream centre-right parties in France further to the right. 

Significantly, Britain faced a National Front movement of its own in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The National Front failed, however, to have a serious impact on immigration policy in Britain.  According to Solomos, the party declined as a result of the ‘marginalisation of the racist message that the National Front was propounding’, ‘the incorporation of the National Front’s ideas into mainstream political institutions’, and internal party disintegration (190).  Or, the party may simply have faltered as a result of Britain’s first-past-the-post system of Parliamentary representation, resulting in National Front failure to ever win seat in Parliament. 

In France, with a system of proportional representation in the National Assembly, the party had a different effect.  National Front gained popularity as France faced increasing unemployment during the 1980s, and immigrants were often perceived by the public as competitors with citizens for jobs.  French public opinion surveys cited by Hargreaves show declining public acceptance of immigrants in France during economic downturns (Hargreaves 155-157).  Most rejected were Africans, especially Algerians, whose dark complexion and Islamic beliefs, it was thought, made for difficult assimilation (161-163). 

As a result of broad public support for tighter immigration policies, and to stem the tide of supporters to the National Front, French mainstream centre-right parties Rassemblement Pour la Republique (RPR) and Union por la Democratie Française (UDF) sought to further restrict immigrant access to France.  In 1986, Legislators debated numerous amendments to the French Nationality Code (CNF) before deciding to end the automatic granting of French nationality to persons born on French soil to foreign parents.  According to Hargreaves, public reaction against the relatively weak conservative coalition government led to retreating support for the 1986 measure, which ultimately did not pass (171).  In 1993, however, a reinvigorated centre-right coalition successfully amended the CNF to allow a child born on French soil to be considered a French national only if at least one parent had resided in France for at least five years before the child’s birth (174).  It was claimed that the bill sought to prevent expectant mothers from birthing on French soil to gain French citizenship for their babies and themselves, but the change was widely seen as a method of limiting the number of African and Islamic immigrants that supposedly ‘assimilated’ with such difficulty into French society. 
  
THE END OF THE MILLENNIUM APPROACHES, AND BOTH BRITAIN AND FRANCE are poised to exit the century with racially-discriminatory immigration policies that annually prohibit entry and opportunity to thousands of potential immigrants.  The countries continue to grow towards each other and other members of the European Union, but move ever closer to unified external borders that are liable to lock the doors to thousands more.  Ideally, the EU clique would reach out to peoples living elsewhere in the world, and invite them to move to Europe and share in the economic success of the Union.  Realistically, however, a more likely scenario envisions the construction of a ‘Fortress Europe’ that aims to keep foreigners out. According to leading race relations expert Ambalavaner Sivanandan, Eurocentric racism ‘emerging from the interstices of the old ethnocentric racism’ is expressed in the form of the European Union (Miles 36). 

With massive minority populations, attention now turns towards ‘second generation’ settlers in Britain and France.  Unfortunately, policies that support the growing minority populations have followed the same nationalist vein as immigration policies in these countries.  States Solomos, ‘Central government departments . . . have not shown a clear commitment to or allocated adequate resources to racial equality programmes [in Britain]’ (Solomos 81).  France, of course, continues to view immigration and race relations through blinders, failing to adopt any policies that promote anything other than ‘integration’. 

There is slight hope that the individual sovereignties of Britain and France may liberalise immigration policies whilst they still have this ability.  But with the continued stability of conservatives in France, it is unlikely that a move to end the official France ‘Zero Immigration’ policy will occur any time soon.  In Britain, the new Labour government may change immigration policy, but a return to the Imperial Act, when British immigration policy reached its liberal zenith, is not foreseeable. 

It is lamentable that the immigration policies of France and Britain have become so restrictive during the past 40 years, but one can only hope that the next 40, whether as individual states or in unison as EU members, bring a gradual decline in the racially prejudicial nature of French and British immigration policy. 
  
Works Cited 

‘Background to British National Law.’  Britain in the USA.  British Information Services.  19 July 1998.  
Hargreaves, Alec G.  Immigration, ‘Race’ and Ethnicity in Contemporary France.  London:  Routledge, 1995. 
Miles, Robert.  ‘The Articulation of Racism & Nationalism.’  Racism & Migration in Western Europe.  Ed. John Solomos and John Wrench.  Oxford:  Berg, 1993. 
Solomos, John.  Race & Racism in Britain.  New York:  St. Martin’s Press, 1993. 
13. 山高云低
2014-05-25 19:41
佩服博士眼光,在经济学家独排衆议。事实胜於雄辩。
14. 山高云低
2014-05-25 19:41
佩服博士眼光,在经济学家独排衆议。事实胜於雄辩。
15. C Tsao
2014-05-25 21:58

Voting With Our Condoms

 / Post on  / Filed under 专栏结集, HK Magazine, Politically Incorrect / tagged 

Hong Kong has seen an astonishingly sharp 40 percent drop in the birth rate over the past 30 years, according to government statistics. Put off by rising property prices and chaotic “education reforms,” young would-be parents who are not rich or highly educated enough to apply for emigration to Canada, Australia or the EU have finally decided to vote with their condoms.

This is despite a call by former chief executive Sir Donald Tsang a few years ago for young Hongkongers to reproduce more passionately under his rule, suggesting three children per family. With CY Leung’s plans to tighten the border control knot against an immigration influx by clamping down on pregnant mainland women’s visas, this could mean a shortage of labor—and worse—an aging population.

Back in 1981, Hong Kong was a better place to breed and raise a child. The former colony was reaping great economic benefits from Lord MacLehose, who is believed to have been the greatest colonialist in the Far East. The public housing scheme was put in place. The ICAC was working to root out corruption. Young talents and college graduates were rushing back from overseas to join the manufacturing, banking and entertainment industries. Chow Yun-fat, Maggie Cheung and John Woo budded, succeeded and became culturally exportable proud faces of Hong Kong, which was being looked after remotely by a proud Margaret Thatcher and a reviving Britain. It was a time when Cinderella had little idea about the party’s 1997 deadline. No wonder the “Family Planning Association” bombastically ran heavy community advertising campaigns to remind local parents to cap the number of children at two. The campaign had little effect at a time when the name Durex sounded almost as fresh and curious to young Hongkongers as it did to Ethiopians.

The mood now is just the reverse for obvious reasons, which will cause CY Leung and Beijing a little headache. Singapore has been a role model for Hong Kong and China for the past decade, with Lee Kuan Yew attracting many fans such as Tung Chee-hwa and Hu Jintao, who have talked about copying the model of success of the proud city-state founded by Captain Raffles.

But above all, it is widely recognized that eugenics is the core of Singapore’s founding father’s thoughts. Borrowing administrative experiences from Singapore means that the SAR government should subsidize each young talented man, say, a graduate from the University of Hong Kong, for his willingness to make a DGS alumna pregnant, with the help of an attractive package of incentives. This could mean a little flat on Caine Road plus free education vouchers from kindergarten to Harrow. Or perhaps more government-sponsored coverage of the forthcoming baby from Daniel Wu and Lisa S would do the trick.

These measures would encourage local Hongkongers to get rid of their condoms as promptly as, God forbid, Beijing gets rid of CY Leung.

- See more at: http://chiptsao.com/voting-with-our-condoms/#sthash.sZIShRyf.dpuf
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