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茶餐廳亂話(471)11月29日消失了
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茶餐廳亂話(471)11月29日消失了

 

湯文亮博士

紀惠集團行政總裁
2019年2月13日

  今早去到茶餐廳,見到老闆同一位客人傾計。原來那位客人話我所寫的樓市評論是模稜兩可,沒有準確的日子,不似得被坊間稱為最準的樓市評論員,每一次升跌都預先張揚,並且有報紙訪問為証。老闆當然替我辯護,但亦不用太費心,只是講了一個日子。條友不但收聲,仲立刻話有事先走,原來老闆問點解整篇文章唔見了11月29日。有熟客不明白,老闆話去年11月29日是那位最準的評論員話樓市從谷底反彈的日子,而事實上去年12月樓價下跌了2.5%。今年1月,再下跌2.5%。在谷底反彈日之後兩個月,樓價竟然下跌了5%,是否預測與事實的分野很大?不過,如果11月29日消失了,就依然是坊間最準的評論員。老闆話我實在太蠢,搞什麼認輸宴,搞到人人都記得我。其實我不是儍仔,如果我只提估中的,邊度有人記得我?要肯認輸,才可以做一個大家都認識的評論員。

茶餐廳亂話(471)11月29日消失了
2. 夏秋冬
2019-02-13 11:12
消失的,豈只咁少。
3. 賣樓之神話未來跌20%
2019-02-13 12:03

Brace for up to 20 per cent decline in Hong Kong home prices, CK Asset senior director says

13 February 2019

Hong Kong home prices could be headed for a multi-year downtrend that knocks valuations by up to 20 per cent, prompting major developers to slash prices for new homes along with the sliding market, according to a senior executive at CK Asset Holdings, the second largest developer in Hong Kong by capitalisation.

CK Asset executive director Justin Chiu Kwok-hung said on Tuesday that home prices could drop 10 per cent this year and by up to 8 to 10 per cent next year, amid simmering trade tensions between China and the US that show little sign of being resolved in the near future.

“We will adjust our selling prices if the property market is heading to a downtrend. But our projects would still have to make a profit as the sites were bought at lower cost years ago,” Chiu said. “Home prices will need to return to the level of end 2016 and early 2017 before the general public can afford to own a home.”

Hong Kong home prices dropped about 9 per cent from the peak in July last year to December, according to data released by the Rating and Valuation Department. For the whole of 2018, home prices grew 1.6 per cent, though the increase was the smallest annual growth in 10 years.

Donald Cheung, executive director of property developer Emperor International, said he expected home prices to drop a further 10 to 15 per cent.

“Whether it will rise again can only be determined in the third quarter because of uncertainties currently in the market,” he said.

Cheung said low interest rates and a modest supply pipeline in the long term meant that housing prices were unlikely to be shaken too drastically.

The bearish outlooks contrasted with rosier views by CLSA, Citibank and JPMorgan, which predicted home prices will rise by up to 15 per cent between April and December, driven by robust liquidity and pent up demand.

Meanwhile, home builders such as Henderson Land Development, New World Development, Sino Land and Chinachem Group, had a relatively benign view of the market, saying home prices could remain stable or even rise slightly this year.

CK Asset has raised the number of homes it will offer for sale to 2,400 this year, up 4.4 times from the 443 units it sold in Hong Kong in 2018.

CK Asset said its revenue from 2018 home sales in the city amounted to HK$15 billion (US$1.91 billion), a drop of 70.4 per cent from HK$50.6 billion in 2017.

The developer plans to offer a combined 4,600 homes for sale this year in Hong Kong and the mainland, slightly below the 5,000 units offered in 2017.

4. 湯瑪斯
2019-02-13 16:22
除了那位最準樓巿評論員之外,大部份評論員都是估錯唔認,估對就也文也武,認叻不甘後人。鮮有像博士一樣勇於認錯!
5. 引刀一快
2019-02-13 18:11
肯認輸,就等如為論戰訂立標準,唔係講完算數,而係對所言要有所承擔。
6. 真真薯片
2019-02-13 22:36
General public....

港樓,尤其是地點靚既新樓,早就變成奢侈品,好似貴價手錶一樣,係有錢人專用

老百姓都可以look卡買甚至炒勞力士既,好彩炒到上岸,唔好彩爆煲破產都有,但係整個貴價手錶市場唔會因為少少人跳樓而爆煲,當然,如果整個市道大幅向下,金勞都會唔惦
7. CD ROM
2019-02-14 17:32
最近勞力士市場, 炒風是絕對比物業投資市場來得不健康呢~~~
8. 引刀一快
2019-02-14 18:03
CD-ROM兄

願聞其詳!
9. CD ROM
2019-02-14 18:13
刀兄, d入門運動款鋼勞, 好似細價樓咁, 全部炒價仲未必有貨... 個別款式係炒30%+ 都有價有市...

以前1款半款就個別例子, 但最近係雞犬皆升~~~

奇怪奇怪~~~
10. 引刀一快
2019-02-14 18:33
CD-ROM兄

咁我明喇,又係大陸,因為最近又印銀紙,但係大陸人都覺得D樓危,所以炒呢D,我覺得買金好過喇。
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