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US treasury yield holds key to HK home prices
 
Eric Lui
31st March 2017 (Economic Journal)

We’ve discussed several factors that may trigger a U-turn in Hong Kong’s housing market and concluded that home prices may hit a peak and fall off in third or fourth quarter of this year.

But even if that happens, the correction is expected to be quite mild because of one important reason: the persistent inflow of capital into Hong Kong has yet to reverse.

If you will recall, the US Federal Reserve launched monetary easing measures after the 2008 financial crisis.

As a result, Hong Kong’s monetary base surged 340 percent as of late 2015, while that of the United States was up 380 percent.

However, Hong Kong’s monetary base has not retreated along with that of the US, although the Fed has started to tighten its monetary policy.

Instead, massive mainland capital has flooded into the territory since the one-off currency depreciation in mainland China in August 2015.

As a result, the city’s monetary base further spiked to HK$1.65 trillion as of March 28, compared with less than HK$350 billion in 2008.

That represents an increase of four times or HK$1.3 trillion.

The pace of fund inflow may have slowed following successive Fed hikes and
China’s measures to stem capital outflow, but the market is still flush with liquidity.

To reverse the fund flow pattern, the US Treasury yield would be the key.

Fed’s monetary easing policy over the last eight years has fueled a treasury market boom.

The treasury yield has been squeezed to extremely low levels. As of December 2016, the outstanding US treasury bonds increased to US$16 trillion.

But given the rising inflation pressure, investors are set to reduce US treasury exposure in the coming years.

In fact, Japan and China, the two largest holders of US treasuries, have cut their holdings to the lowest since financial crisis.

The US treasury market will face mounting selling pressure, pushing up the 10-year treasury bond yield to over 3 percent within the next one to two years.

When that happens, spiking treasury yields would trigger a notable capital outflow from Hong Kong, which would bring about a more serious pullback of home prices.

Translation by Julie Zhu

原文:

觸發樓市轉勢重要外在因素

  呂梓毅
 信報首席經濟及策略師

 

過去3個星期,本欄從樓市小氣候(內在因素)剖析樓市前景,指出今年第三季較後時間或第四季,本港二手樓價將再次出現周期頂部並調整。然而,資金流入香港的大氣候迄今尚未出現逆轉,樓價似乎暫不虞轉勢甚至崩盤。究竟港樓價是否完全沒有隱憂,後市繼續愈升愈有呢?

過去兩星期,本欄從多項樓市內在因素探討後市發展,指出從:(1)藍籌屋苑與上車盤的溢價;(2)新樓銷售數據;(3)特區政府稍後再「加辣」;以及(4)樓市市寬指標,推算出今年第三季較後時間或第四季,二手樓價將再次出現周期頂部,並進入新一輪調整,情況類似2015年9月至2016年3月。

退市不構成即時衝擊

儘管如此,相信這小氣候尚未足以扭轉樓市上升的大方向,極其量只是令樓價繼續保持大漲小回格局。始終樓價自2009年起的大升浪,背後原動力來自資金湧入香港,而有關情況迄今尚未逆轉過來。

正如本欄3月9日的分析已指出,自2008年金融海嘯後,美國聯儲局開展浪接浪的量化寬鬆政策(QE),美國連同香港貨幣基礎(monetary base;【註】)同步攀升。截至2015年底,即聯儲局作出金融海嘯後首次加息行動之前,美國和香港貨幣基礎便分別累積上升約3.8倍和3.4倍【圖1】。

縱使聯儲局隨後開展加息行動,惟香港貨幣基礎不但沒有跟隨美國從高位回軟,反而因為2015年「8.11」滙改,令大量來自內地的資金湧入香港,進一步推高貨幣基礎水平。截至今年3月28日為止,香港貨幣基礎約達1.65萬億元(港元.下同),較2008年的不足3500億元,上升約4倍或1.3萬億元,金額較目前未償還按揭貸款總額的1.13萬億元還要多!由此可見,在如此龐大的資金停泊香港,將繼續支撐香港樓市,導致樓價暫難出現顯著跌勢。

就資金湧入香港的情況,有一點可先補充,隨着聯儲局逐步加息及即將開展貨幣政策正常化(即沽售量寬期間買入的國債/MBS)的進程,加上中國政府積極堵截走資潮,預計流入香港的資金(即貨幣基礎)縱使未見頂,距離頂部亦不遠。話雖如此,由於顧慮到其他主要央行尚進行量寬,退市會令美元走勢出現超強的現象,相信聯儲局退市的步伐將十分緩慢。

再者,從歷年美國3個月期票據息率與貨幣基礎除以GDP的比率集散圖可見(下簡稱「比率」;【圖2】),兩者大致呈逆向關係。按現時此「比率」異常偏低的水平推算,假設GDP及其他市場因素維持不變,即使美國貨幣基礎由現水平收縮三分之一,對債息的影響(或對債息推高的壓力)依然十分有限。

由此可見,僅從央行退市(貨幣政策正常化)的角度看,相信對資金充裕的市場以至香港高企不下的樓價,不會出現立竿見影的衝擊。那麼,本港樓價是否全無隱憂,後市真的可以愈升愈有呢?

聯儲局過去8年的量化寬鬆政策,除創造美股(和香港樓價)大牛市外,亦孕育出(美國)國債泡沫。除國債債息率被壓至異常偏低的水平外(當然,目前相對去年中,美國長期國債債息已從低位回升不少,惟相對歷史水平仍屬偏低),自金融海嘯後美國國債流通量亦出現激增的情況。截至去年12月底為止,美國國債流通量約達16萬億美元【圖3】。若以2000年至2007年的增長速度推算,在沒有QE的環境下,目前流通量估計只有約10萬億美元。換言之,過去8年的量寬,估計令財政部增加多達6萬億美元的國債供應!

債息顯著抽升加速走資

問題是,縱使聯儲局加息和貨幣政策正常化進程如預期般緩慢推進,無疑始終會對市場造成一定心理影響,尤其國債供應量自金融海嘯後顯著增大,加上近年來美國(及環球)通脹持續有升溫的趨勢,投資者逐步減持美債似乎是一個合理的預期和大方向。事實上,僅從央行的角度看,全球持有美國國債最多的日本和中國政府,持有量近年反覆回落,後者更降至金融海嘯以來新低【圖4】。

換言之,隨着聯儲局逐步加息和將啟動貨幣政策正常化進程,加上通脹升溫和國債供應過剩的壓力,美國國債市場的沽售壓力與日俱增。預期美國10年期國債孳息在未來一兩年內有很大機會向上突破3厘關鍵水平【圖5】,屆時意味美國國債運行逾30年的大牛市亦壽終正寢,債息料將出現顯著回升(問題是有序或是失序飆升)。而債息顯著抽升,一方面將會直接扯高市場息率;另一方面,資金亦會因而加速流出香港,進而壓低香港樓價。那時,相信香港樓市將出現轉勢,即樓市將步入較長期的下跌浪中!