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「限購令」與「限奶令」在效果上的分別

 

浪子心聲

2018年7月16日
特首林鄭月娥繼推出「新樓空置稅」及「資助房屋以負擔能力定價」後,近日她好像正在放風「住房限購令」,簡稱「限購令」,如果實行未來香港住房只可售與香港永久居民。大家可能在想「限購令」能否像「限奶令」般在一夜之間完全改變局面。首先筆者認為上一任香港特首唯一的德政就是「限奶令」,在政策制定上能掌握問題核心,嬰兒奶粉是「民生必須品」,在實行資本主義自由市場的香港,必須品在供應不足時政府是有責任作出適當干預,穩定社會民生。「限奶令」法規簡單,離開香港的16歲以上人士每人每天不得攜帶總淨重超過兩罐900克奶粉,違例者一經定罪,最高可被罰款50萬港元及監禁兩年,因此法例非常容易實施。更重要的是「限奶令」效果明顯,在2013年3月實施後,可說一夜之間香港媽媽再不用擔憂買不到奶粉,由於水客只能帶兩罐奶粉,大大減低嬰兒奶粉在港需求,嬰兒奶粉供不應求的問題在實施「限奶令」後即時迎刃而解。

首先「限奶令」和「限購令」本質是相同的,因為「嬰兒奶粉」和「住宅樓宇」同是「民生必須品」。雖然過去在此論壇有過多次的爭議,但大眾如有留意特首林鄭月娥上任後不久就已明確表示「住房」是「非一般商品」,而筆者當然認為住房是百分百的必須品,世上有哪個政府會認為人民不需要住房。因此「限購令」和「限奶令」本質上同樣為解決「民生必須品」在供應不足時作出的市場干預措施。第二「限購令」法規亦是非常簡單明確,香港住房只可售與香港永久居民,如同「限奶令」非常容易實施,亦可大幅度減低需求,尤其是沒有內地買家,香港住房便從一個13億人口的市場降至700萬人的香港市場,需求必然大幅度降低。

很可惜在效果方面「限購令」應無法產生像「限奶令」般在一夜之間就能解決供不應求問題,主因為嬰兒奶粉在大幅度減少水貨需求後,香港本身是有足夠奶粉應付本港嬰兒和只能帶兩罐奶粉的水貨客需求。相反香港每年只得約兩萬個私樓供應,本身就不足以應付香港永久居民的需求。更重要是香港一手樓市場可說完全沒有效率,大地產商壟斷市場及主導新樓定價,就算實行「限購令」,地產商不會即時減價,更有可能繼續加價,繼續慢慢賣,因此實行「限購令」將不會出現即時解決香港樓房供應不足及樓價過高問題。

雖然如此,但若能同時實施「限購令」和「新樓空置稅」,應可在一兩年間令香港私樓慢慢調整到港人負擔能力的價格,因為「限購令」能大幅度收縮香港私樓市場的買家對像,一年後當大量私樓現樓供應到位時,同時「新樓空置稅」限期又到,地產商便需要加快賣樓,但賣樓對像只得番香港永久居民,若要賣得出定價自然要以香港人負擔能力為準,現今樓價已大幅度超出港人負擔能力,一手樓定價必然需要調整。同時地產商在投地時的出價亦會大幅度調整,減低成本,因為他們應意識到在「限購令」下,整體房地產項目必須以香港經濟和港人收入界定售價,筆者相信到時效果應相當明顯。

雖然「限購令」不能一夜之間解除大部分香港人買不起私樓的問題,但現時港府已決定實行「新樓空置稅」及「資助房屋以負擔能力定價」,再加上「限購令」便可能令所有出售房屋不論是資助或非資助都能以負擔能力定價,樓價的升幅只會隨著香港人的收入而上升,到時不單只年輕人,所有香港人對買不起樓的擔憂便能大幅度減低,因此筆者希望特首能盡快推出「限購令」,從而完善香港的房屋制度,穩定人心。


 
 
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1. Luguo 2018-07-16 06:11:53
買咗個啲會上街,輸打贏要是常態,無人會自找麻煩吧
2. 巴 2018-07-16 06:27:21
新例落成後,以公司形式持有物業,過半股東必須為港人。
3. Patrick 2018-07-16 10:05:49
限購令未必係限定香港永久居民先買得,可能係話要限制在港居留時間,類似綜援,過去三年要在港居留800日
4. 淡淡又要悲哀 2018-07-16 19:27:58
限購令的作用在於飢餓營銷,作用是創造炒賣氣氛,令香港物業成為限量版的物體。北上廣深樓價就是被多年來一波又一波的限購令不斷炒高的,林太好清楚此一現象。

限購令一出,更加冇業主敢賣樓。
限購令更加刺激物業以公司股份轉讓形式交易,令公司貨更加值錢。

限購令的目的是令香港住宅價格穩步上升,大家不要解讀錯誤林太的出發點。
5. 盡快推出限購令的好處 2018-07-16 19:53:53
作為在上海靜安區擁有三套物業的物業好友,支持盡快推出限購令。

限購令刺激購樓慾望,已落戶香港的強國土豪將不惜假離婚爭取Quota 買多層,而未落戶香港的大土豪就會以假結婚,假專才,甚至假親屬(每天quota150人)的形式來港搶被限購的稀缺資源(香港住宅)。

越被限購被限制的資源,其市場價格就越高。限購令幫助催生購樓慾望。

浪子未買過大陸樓,不知道限購令出咗後搞到有一排好多大城市離婚都要大排長龍。


6. 限貸令及限價令 2018-07-16 20:14:46
空置稅失敗後,林太明年應該會推出限購令。但又因為限購令結果令本港住宅樓價升得更加恐佈,林太會在2020或2021年左右效法大陸推出限貸令及限價令,以爭取連任。

條件式反射,大家一見推出新辣招,就意識到樓價好快又會升,於是又飛撲入市。

鐡打的樓市,流水的特首。無計!
7. 引刀一快 2018-07-17 05:43:54
浪子心聲兄

限奶令係大陸嘅order嚟架。
8. Carson 2018-07-17 08:14:02
唔好再出辣招了,越辣越升,除非外圍暴跌金融危機。
9. 辣椒仔 2018-07-17 08:28:42
出完辣招,樓價必升已經成為全民共識,多年來有曬track record你睇。引刀話哉,炒樓必贏錢,剛需中的剛需。
10. 引刀一快 2018-07-17 08:49:56
Carson兄

不一定,睇下咩招啫,比如100%BSD。
11. 1000%BSD 2018-07-17 14:33:22
如果明天BSD加到1000%,咁即使我手頭上的公司貨即時加500%(5倍)都會有大把土豪爭住買,因為都可以節省500%印花稅。

咁大家估下隔壁的非用公司名hold住的單位業主肯減價沽樓嗎?引刀話齋,不蝕底才是剛需中的剛需。

BSD加到1000%的後果,就是中原指數急急升穿500點大關,普天同慶!🤣林太敢不敢試吓?


12. 浪子心聲 2018-07-17 14:56:35
我睇今次施政報告都應該會出嚟招「香港永久居民住房限購令」,因為嚟緊嗰兩個月樓價無得跌,到10月可能仲會升咗,林鄭點向中央交代,唯有出嚟招,大家拭目以待 。

係啊出完嚟招樓價可能都會繼續升,但特首唔做嘢佢自己就問題多多喇!

13. 王道 2018-07-17 15:17:59
不要再把精力放在旁門左道的辣招了,xxD, 空置稅,限購令,限價令,租管,資本增值稅........,出得越多越增加港人對樓價必升的信念。

全力以赴開拓郊野公園,移山填海開拓新巿鎮吧。香港班後生唔知沙田,大圍都是填海填回來的。

一天到晚就說辣招buy time. 咁多年來辣招buy 的time 究竟益咗那些人?大家應該知道答案。
14. 不敗 2018-07-17 21:38:58
今個星期從山頂Twelve Peaks到九龍天鑄都破頂價不絕出現。 空置稅陰公真的是一絲威力都冇。

樓市太不俾面娥六招了,林鄭情何以堪!

吹牛吹咗半年的空置稅令大家空歡喜一埸,於是下半年又會把寄託放在未推出已經知道冇用的限購令上。 加油💪

15. 真正王道 2018-07-17 23:12:09
13樓,從前內地無咁多有錢人,香港起多啲樓增加供應可算是王道,但今時今日中國內地有錢人多的是,香港起多多樓都唔夠滿足13億人口需求,限購今才是真正王道。
16. 33連升 2018-07-18 08:20:33
內地樓價又連升33個月。限購令已經在內地城市失效,睇唔到為何在香港可以成功。
17. 林鄭unimpressive 2018-07-19 15:25:10
浪子你仲要話林病有心有力,睇時人哋話佢unimpressive


‘Gross mismanagement’ by Hong Kong’s four chief executives led to present city woes, author and ex-colonial policy adviser Leo Goodstadt says

Economist blasts city’s post-1997 leaders in new book, calling Tung Chee-hwa ‘a failure’, Donald Tsang business-minded, Leung Chun-ying ‘miscalculating’ and Carrie Lam unimpressive

The “gross mismanagement” of Hong Kong by the city’s four chief executives to date has resulted in the current problems faced by residents – from the housing shortage to a flawed education system and political uncertainty – according to a former chief policy adviser to the last two colonial governors.

The scathing comments by economist Leo Goodstadt are reflected in his new book, titled A City Mismanaged: Hong Kong’s Struggle For Survival .

The author argues the city’s post-1997 leaders emulated private sector models in public administration and imposed unnecessarily tight control over the provision of public services.

Goodstadt came to Hong Kong in 1962 and served as the first head of the government-appointed Central Policy Unit from 1989 to 1997. He told the Post in a recent interview: “Gross mismanagement in government is not caused by Hong Kong’s political system but by the incompetent performance of the individual power holders.”

The mismanagement, Goodstadt said, had led to current woes in the city, such as the housing shortage, overcrowding in public hospitals and ineffective ­handling of relations with the ­central government.

Goodstadt, in the interview, questioned the political skills of current leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and said her administrative performance was unimpressive, with her insistence on the profit-driven business model of governance.

In his book, Goodstadt said Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong’s first chief executive, was “a failure” and “just an entrepreneur” lacking political talent, while his successor Donald Tsang Yam-kuen damaged good governance by overly committing to business interests.

According to Goodstadt, the two leaders were responsible for shrinking public housing programmes and liquidating the Housing Authority’s land bank to make way for private developers.

Third chief executive Leung Chun-ying had a “serious mistrust of a large proportion of the population” while he “miscalculated” his credentials and connections for building diplomacy with mainland Chinese officials, Goodstadt said.

Only Tsang responded to inquiries from the Post over Goodstadt’s comments. “I have much respect for Mr Goodstadt as an old friend of Hong Kong, and he is entitled to his views on how it might be better managed,” Tsang said.
The people of Hong Kong seem to be warning those in power
Leo Goodstadt, author

Goodstadt claimed “the people of Hong Kong seem to be warning those in power that the problems of daily life have become so severe that families can no longer rely on their own resources to survive”.

By the end of 2017, the Hong Kong government held a fiscal reserve exceeding HK$1.7 trillion (US$216.6 billion), official data showed.

18. 嘥聲壞氣 2018-07-21 11:44:34
樓價上升最大獲利者是政府,你叫佢點會真心推跌樓價呢.
19. 窮人思維 2018-07-21 12:45:38
窮淡就是希望政府幫手打殘樓價,拉近貧富差距。

窮淡多不思上進,不求自己發達,但求他人扒街。

窮淡,真的是窮得有道理


21. Duncan 2018-07-25 13:16:17

Podcast: Deconstructing Trump’s tariffs, turning point in history and the end of globalisation

Workers in a textile factory in Anxin, Hebei province on April 5, 2017. Photo: AFP
5-7 minutes

The deepening trade dispute between the United States and China could mark a “turning point in history”, ending the system of global trade that brought low-cost goods to consumers and fuelled the rise of the Chinese mainland and other emerging markets in just a few decades, according to noted economist and author Richard Duncan.

Bangkok-based Duncan believes the US$50 billion of Chinese products designated for 25 per cent tariffs by the Trump administration – in addition to a proposed 10 per cent tariff on an additional US$200 billion in Chinese goods – may represent the first steps in a policy shift by Washington that goes far beyond what many observers expect.

“I am becoming concerned that they really do intend to put up trade tariffs on a very large scale against China and that perhaps there’s more to this strategy than just balancing trade. They may be intent on stopping China’s economic growth altogether, now that China has become so large they are becoming not only an economic competitor, but potentially a military threat to US global dominance. If that’s the case, this could be a turning point in history,” Duncan said in a new South China Morning Post business podcast.

While it is too early to say how the trade talks between the two sides will play out, one concern is that escalating tariffs, beginning with the US$34 billion of Chinese products which went into effect on July 6, are about to become the norm, rather than the exception.

Author and economist Richard Duncan. Photo: Handout

Another is whether the trade policies are really designed to reverse the deindustrialisation of the US economy – a theme made prominent during Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

“Over the last 30 years the rapid economic rise of China has really transformed the world, but if the US starts putting tariffs on US$200 billion and US$500 billion of Chinese exports, then China’s economy could go into a very serious crisis,” Duncan said.

Duncan, who now publishes independent research at his subscription video newsletter Macro Watch (richardduncaneconomics.com), said China’s growth could come to a “screeching halt”, resulting in millions of job losses, while a domino slowdown would also be felt among its major trading partners.

Another outcome would be rising inflation, higher interest rates, and a global drag on asset prices ranging from stocks to real estate.

China reports record trade surplus with US and exports growth in eve of tariffs

“The impact would be global and we would see a drop in metal prices and that would be a blow to metal and mining companies. Also as commodity prices fell, the economies of the commodity-producing economies would go into recession,” he said.

China’s trade surplus with the United States reached a monthly record of US$28.9 billion in June. Photo: Bloomberg

Duncan started his career in finance in Hong Kong in 1986, working as a research analyst for a local brokerage. His insights into the global economy were partly inspired by visits to factories in Guangdong province, where he witnessed first-hand the rapid industrial transformation underway at the time.

“There were factories all along the Pearl River Delta full of 19-year-old women working for US$3 per day. It didn’t take long to realise that this was going to be very deflationary and very disruptive for the US economy if we had free trade with China because clearly this would result in the deindustrialisation of the US because how could it compete when it paid its workers roughly US$200 per day,” Duncan said.

Duncan said his thoughts on global trade were also fuelled by his experience heading equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok during the 1990s, a period that he credits as his education in “bubblenomics”.

Duncan later worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington.

In 2003, he laid out his theories on global trade in the international bestseller The Dollar Crisis, a book which he said “forecast the global economic crisis [of 2008] quite accurately”.

Richard Duncan during the Hong Kong paperback release of the The Dollar Crisis on June 17, 2005. Photo: SCMP

Duncan, an American, said he does not side with Washington in this conflict. Instead he has been promoting an alternative path that takes advantage of low interest rates to help fund state-backed scientific research on a massive scale.

“I don’t view this as a conflict between the US and China. It is not that simple, it’s not team USA versus team China. There are interests in the United States that have benefited enormously from this arrangement that now exists, in particular, the large US multinationals. They have been able to drive down their labour costs by moving their factories from Detroit and other US cities into China. Their wage costs have collapsed as a result of this move. The share of profits that are split between labour and capital have shifted.”

Duncan thinks a moon shot, similar in nature to Nasa’s Apollo programme of the 1960s – this time in such areas as genetic engineering, biotechnology, nanotechnology and clean energy – is the best way forward.

“It would be much better for the government to undertake at the government level a very aggressive investment programme … in new industries and new technologies,” Duncan said.